Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Live Podcast!

Hey! I'll be re-joining Jack Steal on his weekly podcast talking Twins tonight! We've moved up an hour, so we'll be starting at 10PM EST, 9PM CST. Feel free to call in with any questions or insights! We'll be joined by special guest Andrew Kneeland of Twins Target for part of the show!

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

The Cuddyer Trap




If there's one thing that sticks in my mind from the past month of this '09 campaign, it was the amazing performance of Michael Cuddyer. After Justin Morneau went down for the season and Twins fans everywhere began to throw in the towel, Michael Cuddyer went on a torrid streak of baseball hitting .279/.338/.582, while jolting 10 home runs to accompany his 29 RBIs. Those are some impressive numbers over the course of a month, and he did it all while playing out of position on the infield (where, come to mention, he provided stellar defense as well).

Recently, there's been some speculation in the blogging world -- and I'm sorry, I can't find the link -- that the Twins could be looking to lock up Michael Cuddyer for a lifetime contract this offseason.

Interesting.

My immediate reaction is that this would be a great chance for the Twins to showcase a commitment to keeping some of their core players and building a championship team. But the more I think about it, the more I wonder if this should really be a priority?

Yes, I think I'd love you as a career Twins player, but is that for the best right now?

Michael Cuddyer is a great player, especially on a Twins team that's almost devoid of veteran leadership and power-hitting outfielders. But neither of those traits are particularly hard to find in free agency, and unless Cuddyer comes at a lower price, why should we commit such a large chunk of payroll to it? This, especially, in the season in which we are trying to resign ultimately the best player in baseball to one of the most lucrative and perhaps cash-strapping contracts in Twins history?

Is it because of Baseball Unplugged?

I'm still hoping to go sometime, so I'd kind of like you to stick around. (Thanks for the photo, Betsy.)

The Twins shouldn't be in any rush to sign him long term this offseason, especially considering that they'd be signing him after he just had the hottest month ever in his career. He's still under contract for this season, and the Twins will undoubtedly be able to afford his option for 2011 (10.5 million).

Cuddyer has been in the majors since '01, but he only started getting regular playing time since '04, where he primarily started in the infield to rather unsuccessful results. His first full year in RF he rocketed out of his mediocre numbers to post a solid .284/.362/.504 while belting 24 HRs and 109 RBIs in '06. After his monster year, he was rewarded with a big 3-year contract and an option for 2011.

He went on to post a decent, if unspectacular season in '07, and an awful season in '08 hampered by numerous injuries, before turning it on again this year (though to be realistic, those numbers were significantly helped by that September onslaught he produced).

Grrr, onslaught, grrr.

Let's be clear, I'm not advocating letting Cuddyer go. I just don't think resigning him right now is the priority when he's already inked. We can afford to wait and see how 2010 goes for him, how much money it takes to resign Mauer (which had better be Bill Smith's priority), and get ourselves a look at players like Rene Tosoni and Chris Parmelee, who don't seem to be too far away and both could profile as corner outfielders.

I would argue that the outfield is still one of the richest areas for the Twins right now. Denard Span is probably the third, maybe the fourth best hitter on our team (debating how he ranks compared to Kubel). Young and Gomez both represent substantial investments and are both still young and relatively cheap -- hence, their presence on this team does not impede money we need to resign Mauer and shore up our entire infield left of Morneau. Even Kubel is, when not a DH, a corner outfielder. This just isn't an area of pressing concern in my mind right now.

But again, his leadership and clubhouse presence is substantial, especially if Redmond is gone next year. Cuddyer WILL be around in 2010, and he will almost certainly be around in 2011 as well. Let's focus on some players of more urgency this offseason.


Feel free to discuss, I'd love to hear your thoughts on how hard we should go after resigning Cuddyer this offseason.

Also, be sure to tune into the podcast Wednesday night as I join Jack Steal again -- this time it will be at 9PM Central, 10PM EST.

Friday, October 30, 2009

"Twins Bloggers: Get to Know 'Em!" presents For the Love of the Game

First off, I'd like to thank everyone for stopping by the past few days to read my Matt Guerrier article. Thanks to John Bonnes for plugging it on Gameday and Seth Stohs for plugging it again on his website - I really appreciated the great comments on it and the site traffic.

Second, thanks again to Jack Steal for inviting me on his podcast! We had more call-ins and also a great special guest: Nick Nelson, of Nick's Twins Blog, one of the most respected Twins bloggers out there and a great source of discussion. If you haven't already listened to the podcast you can listen to it here.

Third, and MOST important, it's Friday. And that means we continue my weekly offseason series:

For my fourth installment of "Twins Bloggers: Get to Know 'Em", I'm pleased to be able to introduce Betsy of For the Love of the Game. Easily one of my favorite Twins blogs, she's also one of the first bloggers I ever met and went to a game with! In fact, along with Katie from KC's Baseball Blog, we scaled a parking garage wall to scope out the great views of Target Field. Betsy always has witty and well-thought-out content about whatever is going on in the Twins universe, and she also is quite adept at making signs. So, without further ado, on to Betsy's answers!

General-
NAME: Betsy
BIRTHDAY: 10/16/80
HOMETOWN: Austin, MN
WHAT KEEPS YOU EMPLOYED OTHER THAN BLOGGING: Administrative Assistant
FAVORITE COLOR: Hot pink
FAVORITE FOOD: Italian
FAVORITE MOVIE: Girls Just Wanna Have Fun
FAVORITE TYPE OF MUSIC: I like most kinds of music
FAVORITE SPORT TO WATCH OTHER THAN BASEBALL: Hockey
FAVORITE SPORT TO PLAY: haha ... I dance
HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE VIKINGS/TIMBERWOLVES/WILD: I don't follow basketball, but for football, I prefer the Chargers, and I LOVE the Wild!

General Baseball-
WHAT MAKES BASEBALL SO GREAT TO YOU: I grew up watching baseball ... and when I was really little I'd play baseball with the boys in my neighborhood.
IF YOU HAD TO FOLLOW ANOTHER TEAM, WHICH AND WHY: The Rays, because Jason Bartlett is still a favorite of mine.
BEST EXPERIENCE AT A BALLPARK OTHER THAN THE DOME: I've only been to Petco Park other than the Dome, so I don't have much experience, but I LOVED Petco Park! It's beautiful!
OPINION ON INTERLEAGUE PLAY: I love watching the pitchers hit ... it's amusing. Plus Milwaukee is a great rival of the Twins!
OPINION ON THE UNBALANCED SCHEDULE: I think it makes sense considering these are the teams you need to beat in order to get to the World Series!
FAVORITE NON-TWINS PLAYER IN HISTORY: ummm...?? Maybe Albert Pujols... I have a high amount of respect for him and he is an outstanding player, and I know he's very much into his faith, which I think is so cool
MOST HATED NON-TWINS PLAYER IN HISTORY: Nick Swisher... his on field attitude drives me crazy!
DID YOU EVER PLAY BASEBALL/SOFTBALL, WHAT POSITION: Well when I played baseball, we just played, no positions were picked.

Twins Generic-
WHEN DID YOU BECOME A TWINS FAN AND WHY: Sometime in the 80's ... I don't remember when exactly!
BEST EXPERIENCE AT THE DOME: During signings (back when Kent Hrbek was on the team), the players would stand on the field and kids could go around and meet them ... When my brother and I got to Kent Hrbek, he saw that my brother had an Oakland A's hat on ... Kent took the hat off my brother's head and threw it on the ground as my brother got his picture taken with him.
EVER BEEN TO TWINS FEST? HOW WAS IT?: Yes, I've been to Twinsfest several years! It's always fun ... it can get kind of expensive for autographs, but I enjoy the picture line A LOT!
EVER BEEN TO SPRING TRAINING? HOW WAS IT?: Never been to Spring Training ... some day.
HAVE YOU EVER BEEN CIRCLED BY BERT?: Well, technically it was just my "Yankees = Evil Empire" sign that got circled ... I don't know that I ever have been with one of my signs.
HAVE YOU EVER CAUGHT A FOUL BALL OR HOME RUN AT THE DOME?: Nope, just have gotten two balls thrown to me after warm ups or batting practice.

Twins Player Specific-
FAVORITE TWINS PLAYER IN HISTORY: I always had a soft spot for Kent Hrbek growing up, so I have to go with him.
FAVORITE CURRENT TWINS PLAYER: Kevin Slowey
FAVORITE OBSCURE TWINS PLAYER: Haha ... Joe Crede? I never thought I'd like him when he signed with us in the off-season, but he's grown on me.
ARE THERE (WERE THERE) ANY PLAYERS YOU DISLIKE: Juan Rincon for sure ... I'm sure there were others too, but he was the first to come to mind.
FAVORITE EXPERIENCE MEETING A PLAYER: Meeting Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the bar I worked at a couple years ago. I got to talk to both of them and got pictures with them. Plus I got to serve Justin a beer (I worked at the beer tub)
CURRENT PLAYER YOU'D MOST LIKE TO WATCH A GAME WITH: Kevin Slowey
GO TO A BAR WITH: Kevin Slowey
BE STRANDED ON A DESERT ISLAND WITH: Kevin Slowey
HAVE DINNER WITH: Kevin Slowey
BE THE FRONT MAN OF YOUR NEW BAND: Joe Nathan! (or Mauer! Lol)
THINK SHOULD BE A MOVIE STAR: Joe Mauer

EXPECTATIONS OF TARGET FIELD: I think it'll be great ... a little cold in April and not looking forward to rain delays or cancelled games, but overall it should be great!
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE TEAM NEXT YEAR: I hope the "rebuilding" stages are finally over and Bill Smith gets his act in gear and signs Joe Mauer long-term.

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Thanks so much to Betsy for answering my questions and letting us profile her this week! Make sure to check out her site and add it to your daily reads! And next Friday we'll be back when Josh Johnson of Josh's Thoughts takes the stage for us!

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Live Podcast Pt. 2

I'm joining Jack Steal to co-host his second live podcast tonight! You can listen to it live or on archive here. If you're around between 11EST (10CT) and Midnight (11CT) definitely check it out and call in! We'd appreciate your support!

Monday, October 26, 2009

A Piece the Twins SHOULD Trade

By now, enough other bloggers have expounded on the fact that the Twins will probably only have around $20 million dollars or so at most to spend this offseason, and that will have to cover any restructuring of Joe Mauer's contract and plug all the leaks that have sprung in the infield and rotation. This could be a tall task for a Twins front office that hasn't displayed much in the way of creativity over its short tenure.

Consequently, one of the off-season options we could potentially expect to see again would be a significant trade. Twins Fix poses Jason Kubel as a potential tradable asset in a very well-thought out article. While I'd have to agree that if Kubel were able to net us a gold-mine, we should be willing to part with him, I'm not sure if he's the most likely candidate.

Kubel's position on our offense has been invaluable. And we have him at a relative bargain for at least the next two years if the Twins pick up their option (and I don't see how they wouldn't). After endless seasons of not having much power in the middle of our lineup, Kubel's presence has solidified a punch that I don't think we would be able to easily replace for a decent value on the free agent market or in our farm system. Without him, our potent lineup takes a big knock.

I'd like to pose that the Twins should deal from an area where they have overabundance. That area, believe it or not, is in our bullpen.

The Twins are going to have a massive group of pitchers lining up for a spot in their bullpen this year, and one area that practically every team in the majors is always looking to address (and always willing to overpay for) is in the bullpen.

Don't scoff. It's true that this past offseason, and up until our acquisition of Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay at the waiver deadline, the bullpen was a major achilles heel for our team as well. But with all the major players from this last year returning, in addition to Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek, and several people knocking on the door in Rochester, we might just have too few spots for all the available arms.

I am not advocating trading Joe Nathan.

Joe Nathan is one of the best closers in baseball, and no untimely misfortune in a high-pressure series against the Yankees will convince me otherwise. Give me one relief pitcher I want to see trot out of a bullpen in a close game and 5 out of 5 times I'll take Nathan.

I think we need to trade Matt Guerrier.

I love Guerrier. I think Guerrier is a quality bullpen arm and has been the second most reliable person out of our pen the past few years. I also think he performed well over his head this past year, and his value will never be higher.

The old adage is that it's better to trade a player too soon than too late. The ideal would to be trading that player right after they've peaked. Matt Guerrier is 31, his prime is just behind him, and he just posted a career year, with a 2.36 ERA and a 0.969 WHIP (well below his 6-year career numbers of a 3.41 ERA and 1.269 WHIP). He also was tied with Jeremy Affeldt for the most "Holds" (a meaningless stat but a stat nonetheless) with 33 on the season, 5 more than the next best of the set-up men.

I think Guerrier still has several solid years as a set-up man, but I would be willing to wager almost anything he doesn't post numbers like these again. (See Erin's article at Plunking Gomez for more on Guerrier's sustainability.)

Consider for a minute that next year we will have 6-7 spots open in the bullpen. You can assume that Joe Nathan, Jose Mijares and Jon Rauch will occupy 3 of those spots. Unless Jesse Crain is non-tendered, he is also a lock, and the way he pitched since coming back from his demotion to Rochester I have to believe that Crain will remain on our team. As frustrating as he's been, he's not been all that bad of a relief pitcher compared to many others.

I believe that that both Neshek and Bonser will be members of the bullpen as well. And between Liriano, Perkins, and Duensing, only one of them will likely make the rotation while the other two will either be traded or moved to the bullpen.

That's at least 7 good-to-serviceable arms in the pen, not counting Guerrier's. Top that with the fact that Gardenhire is strongly pushing to bring Mahay back under contract, and we have those vaunted prospects of Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama waiting for their shot down in Rochester. We have too many options!

Guerrier is entering his third year of arbitration after making nearly $1.5M in '09. In 2011 he'll hit free agency and the Twins will certainly not retain him. By all means the Twins should see how much somebody would be willing to overpay in a trade.

Perhaps the Angels or Dodgers, who both have suffered this past post-season from ineffective bullpens? Or perhaps Guerrier could be packaged with someone like Delmon Young or Glen Perkins to make a sweeter offer for an infielder like JJ Hardy or Yunel Escobar?

Truth be told, I don't know what kind of package we could get in return for one year of Guerrier, but I imagine that there are many teams looking for a solid reliever, and Guerrier is coming off his best year while the Twins suddenly find themselves with a surplus of bullpen arms for 2010. Some things just make sense.

You too can pretend to dream up brilliant moves and imagine you're the Twins GM, and the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook is not only a useful tool for your musings, but it is packed with enough information to get you through the lonely winter months of the offseason. And it's only $9.95! That's a real deal, especially considering all the free blogging that John Bonnes, Seth Stohs, Parker Hageman, and Nick Nelson have supplied us with on a daily basis.

Anyway, that's all for now. Be sure to check back later this week. I'll be rejoining Jack Steal on his podcast Wednesday night for another go-round, and on Friday I'll be continuing my Twins Bloggers: Get to Know 'Em segment focusing on Betsy of For the Love of the Game!

Friday, October 23, 2009

"Twins Bloggers: Get to Know 'Em" presents Jack Steal

Happy Friday everyone! In case you haven't heard it already, I helped Jack Steal co-host his first ever Twins podcast on Wednesday night. Check it out! We had a couple callers and some very good discussion about the postseason, use of instant replay, reviewing the Twins season, and some things to change and address this offseason.

Speaking of Jack Steal, this Friday's installment of our Twins Bloggers: Get to Know 'Em series will be focusing on him! Jack started his website around the beginning of the '09 season and it has been going strong ever since. He always provides great game recaps during the season and has good insight and analysis on all aspects of the Twins team in his posts. You can find him at Fanatic Jack Talks Twins. Without further ado, let's give the floor to Jack:

Personal-
NAME: Jack Steal
BIRTHDAY: June 11, 1971
HOMETOWN: Born in St. Paul, MN and reside in the NW suburbs.
FAVORITE COLOR: Blue
FAVORITE FOOD: Lasagna
FAVORITE MOVIE: A Few Good Men, Pride of the Yankees, The Natural
FAVORITE BOOK: Profiles in Courage, Tale of Two Cities
FAVORITE TYPE OF MUSIC: Rock and Country. I like them both a lot.
FAVORITE SPORT TO WATCH OTHER THAN BASEBALL: Football and hockey.
FAVORITE SPORT TO PLAY: Baseball as a kid, now softball.
HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE VIKINGS/WILD/TIMBERWOLVES: I love the Vikings and was devastated when they lost to Atlanta in 1999. I am just starting to get into the Wild now. I was a huge hockey fan and when the North Stars moved to Dallas a part of me died inside. I like the Timberwolves and support them but am not really a big basketball fan. Too many THUGS!!

Baseball Generic-
WHAT MAKES BASEBALL SO GREAT TO YOU: It is America's past time!! It is a beautiful game, the bases are 90 feet, the pitcher's mound is 60 feet 3 inches, and it is the only sport that does not have a time clock. The games finish when they finish.
IF YOU HAD TO FOLLOW ANOTHER TEAM, WHICH AND WHY: My second favorite team is the Boston Red Sox. I of course was a Red Sox fan when it was not popular and they were getting their brains beat in by the Yankees every year. It is losing its luster now because they have such a high payroll. After going to St. Louis this year, I have become intrigued by the Cardinals.
BEST EXPERIENCE AT A BALLPARK OTHER THAN THE DOME: This year in St. Louis when we went to see the Twins play there. The best fans in the country!!! They were great to me even though I wore Twins stuff and rooted for them. Very affable.
OPINION ON INTERLEAGUE PLAY: I like it, how else could the Twins play Milwaukee and other teams we would never see.
OPINION ON UNBALANCED SCHEDULE: It should be more balanced and the Twins should play more games against the East and West division teams.
FAVORITE NON-TWINS PLAYER IN HISTORY: Growing up, my favorite players were Mike Schmidt, Darryl Strawberry, and Don Mattingly.
FAVORITE HATED NON-TWINS PLAYER IN BASEBALL HISTORY: Jim Thome. (Glad he is back in the N.L.)
DID YOU EVER PLAY BASEBALL/SOFTBALL, WHAT POSITION: I played through my Sophomore year in H.S. I still play softball 6 months of the year. I pitched and played mostly outfield.

Twins Generic-
WHEN DID YOU BECOME A TWINS FAN AND WHY: Growing up in Minnesota they were the home team. I really appreciated them when it looked like Pohlad was going to move the team back in 1997. It has turned into an obsession.
BEST EXPERIENCE AT THE DOME: October 6, 2009. The tie-breaker with Detroit.
EVER BEEN TO TWINS FEST: I have went the last three years in a row and it's awesome. I can hardly wait for it to come every winter.
EVER BEEN TO SPRING TRAINING: No, but some day.
HAVE YOU EVER BEEN CIRCLED BY BERT: No, and I don't want to either.
HAVE YOU EVER CAUGHT A FOUL BALL OR HOME RUN AT THE DOME: No, but I would give the ball to my kid or another if it happened.

Twins Specific-
FAVORITE TWINS PLAYER IN HISTORY: Kirby Puckett, but Joe Mauer is climbing the charts.
FAVORITE CURRENT TWINS PLAYER: Joe Mauer.
FAVORITE OBSCURE TWINS PLAYER: Greg Gagne or Randy Bush.
TWINS PLAYERS I DISLIKE: Ron Davis and Jesse Crain.
FAVORITE EXPERIENCE MEETING A PLAYER: Shannon Stewart a couple years ago in left field before the game. Nice guy. Bert Blyleven seems nice as well.
CURRENT PLAYER YOU THINK SHOULD BE A MOVIE STAR: Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau.

EXPECTATIONS OF TARGET FIELD: It should be nice if they did not cut any corners. It will be cold and we might struggle in April and May until the players get used to playing outside. The scenery around outside needs to improve. Get rid of the garbage burner behind it.

EXPECTATIONS FOR THE TEAM NEXT YEAR: It will depend on the Pohlad family to spend money and Bill Smith to make some good moves to improve the team. We could be real good but only if Mauer/Morneau/Kubel/Cuddyer have a supporting cast around them.

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Thanks so much to Jack for answering my questions! If you haven't checked out the previous surveys of Katie from KC's Baseball Blog, or Seth Stohs, definitely go back and read those. Make sure to stop by next Wednesday night when I join Jack for another podcast talking more Twins baseball, and be sure to check out the next installment of Twins Bloggers: Get to Know 'Em when Betsy from For the Love of the Game takes the hotseat!

Have a great weekend!

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Live Podcast!

I'm helping Jack Steal of Fanatic Jack Talks Twins with his live podcast tonight. Check it out!