What About Wilson?

In all this hoopla about locking up Joe Mauer (and believe me, it's deserved and I'm involved), I can only help but stop and wonder what Wilson Ramos's reaction to this is. He knew this was coming, he had to -- but if one of our top overall prospects is a catcher on the cusp of being ready for the majors, where does that leave us now?

Ok, that's a real picture of him.

Regardless of what we end up doing with him, Ramos has proven that he's for real and that he deserves to play and not just be buried on a depth chart. He could likely be a starting catcher on almost any other major league team; the talent is just that thin out there (I just did a fantasy baseball draft, and believe me, the pickings are slim), and from all we've seen in his minor league numbers, the Winter League, and this spring, he's ready for a real challenge -- he doesn't need seasoning at AAA, maybe it would be useful but it's more about keeping his service clock from starting.

I've been advocating for him to be the backup to Joe, and while Seth Stohs obviously disagrees with me -- and we've discussed this once or twice on podcasts and disagreed as well -- we can't just shove him under a rug in AAA forever. You can already tell everyone else is asking this question because Joel Sherman of the New York Post is already sniffing it out. Ramos is going to be in the majors one way or another and the real question is if it's with us.

RAMOS AS TRADE BAIT

This is the first idea that naturally comes to mind. A top prospect at a premium position essentially ready for the majors, good with the bat and the glove. We could obviously get a closer for him to address our hole there, but that would probably be shortsighted -- why not reach higher? If he's dangled on a string just think of the suitors that come calling: Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays, Rays, Astros, A's, Mariners, I could keep going. Think about culling through their rosters or prospects and picking a pupu platter you like most.

I know what I'm getting for lunch.

But unless the incredible happens and the market for stud catchers suddenly dries up (not going to happen), these people will still be lining up at our door during the season and next offseason, so there's really no rush to be foolish and trade him away.

What if Mauer goes down with a serious injury and we're forced to rely on a platoon of Morales/Butera for the forseeable future? Or, what if instead of a serious injury Mauer just keeps getting hampered by small injuries that indicate he really needs to move out from the behind the plate soon? Having Ramos in your back pocket is essential. And if none of this happens and the right offer/need comes along, you can deal.

RAMOS STAYS A TWIN

But how? There's really only three ways that would work:

1. Ramos learns a new position. That's the obvious first alternative. You want a bat like his in the lineup every day so no way is he just a bench player. But where does he go? Corner outfield is a lot of ground for a catcher to cover and we've got plenty of outfield prospects that will bring up this conundrum once again in the next couple years. 3B? You need to be a cat over there and while he might have some quick reflexes from behind the plate, he probably doesn't have the side-to-side movement necessary for the position. Most people who have decent scooping abilities but aren't that agile would find themselves at 1B (see Sweeney, Mike; Giambi, Jason; and Thome, Jim for instance). But if there's a second position on this roster we've got someone fixed at it's 1B. This only presents itself as an option if Morneau gets traded or we don't re-up with him several years down the line. DH is the only alternative, but then you waste a great glove by not letting him see the field.

Look at those mad fielding skills!

2. Ramos is a bench bat. What a waste. Talent like this needs to play everyday. True he's there as a threat late in the game and when he spells Mauer our offense will still be quite potent, but enslaving him as a backup catcher is a complete last resort. He'd be more valuable being traded and bringing us useful everyday pieces that contribute in 162 games rather than 50.

3. Ramos and Mauer are both the everyday catcher. When your two best players are catchers, why not let them both catch "everyday". Especially when your concern over handing out a huge 8 year contract to Mauer is primarily hinged on the fact that he might get injured from the wear-and-tear from catching every day. Instead of having a back-up catcher, you can have two starting catchers and rotate them out frequently enough that they each catch only around 80 games a year, and whoever doesn't catch can DH. This is my pet option. It utilizes the fact that both of them have plus gloves, plus arms, and plus bats and also increases the longevity of both of their careers without necessarily limiting plate appearances. Just because this isn't a traditional roster recipe doesn't mean it won't work. Kubel will quickly become too expensive for us, and having two everyday fielders rotate the DH spot while the other plays behind the plate solves the DH hole (it's what the Angels tried to do with Hunter, Matthews Jr., Guerrero, and Rivera).

Your thoughts? (Or are you still just thinking about Joe?)

Stupid Joe Mauer

Dear Joe Mauer,

I hate you. Really. This is taking way too long. I bet Mr. Smith and Mr. Pohlad agree with me (Mr. Shapiro doesn't want to comment).

I wanted to think that you loved us too, that we'd start negotiations and show you how much we loved you by bringing in all your friends to help you get that World Series trophy and then waving a bunch of cash in front of your face the likes of which could feed and house all the unemployed and homeless in Minnesota for years and years.

But that wasn't good enough for you. You continue to flirt with us and tease us but never let us take you out to dinner.

Was it Nick Punto Day? Did our focus on him upset you? Because really, he means nothing to us, it was just one day. One day. And we spend 364 other days of the year focusing on you. Most people would be happy with that. Or maybe, maybe we focus too much on you. Is that it? Are we too needy, too clingy, too co-dependent on each other? Because we'll be better, really! We'll let you eat your lunch and go to your favorite barber shop in peace (and maybe just ask for one autograph instead of a bunch of them).

But we can still photostalk you right?

Seriously though, the longer this takes the more it hurts me. I'd just like to know if you feel the same or not. I'm not used to losing sleep over men, it's just not in my chemistry. This has to stop.

And while we're at it, why do you have to go promoting MLB '10 the Show. When I see you on the cover and when I see you in those commercials, I want to buy it. But I don't have a PS3, I only have access to my roommate's silly XBox 360. And all they have is MLB2K10 with Evan Longoria on the front, and who wants that? What, you couldn't be on both covers? Or you just want to punish me for not having a PS3. All I can think about is those lucky people with Sony boxes who get to spend more time with you than I do.

You even care more about the Wii than my Xbox! Agh!

Ok, I know you don't care. And my writing this letter probably only makes things worse. So let's just pretend we never had this talk, I just needed to vent to you and didn't have a diary because I'm not a 10-year-old girl (despite what this letter might lead you to believe). It just is reassuring knowing you heard me and that maybe, maybe, you might care enough to listen and just SIGN THE DAMN CONTRACT ALREADY! What's the frickin' hold-up, you want hot and cold milk taps in the clubhouse like you've got in your frickin' cabin you've never invited me to?!?!

Alright, enough. I'm not really angry. Just anxious.

Always,

Me

P.S. And I met this awesome guy named Wilson and he speaks Spanish and he doesn't make me feel bad about myself! So I'm sooooo over you.

The Obvious Choice

First things first: "Congratulations, Joe."

After a couple years I can admit that perhaps Morneau's MVP case wasn't so clear-cut. In fact, he probably wasn't the MVP that year. But I can honestly say without a doubt that Mauer's honor is one of the most clear-cut, water-tight cases in history. There just isn't any debating.

In fact, I was surprised there wasn't more outcry from the Yankee fans I'm surrounded by. I wore a Twins t-shirt Monday in support of Joe and the decision that I knew was coming. Conveniently, two of the more avid Yankee fans at my office were both out, but the others that I did see didn't say a word. The TV in our office kitchen plays Sports Center on a loop practically all day, and even after the announcement came and everyone assuredly saw it, nobody said anything.

It was somewhat of a let-down. I was hoping for more vitriol to combat. Perhaps everyone is simply laying in wait to see if we can sign him to that long-term contract before they really speak up about the situation. Even my own enjoyment of Mauer's recognition is being tempered by the fact that I know we're only guaranteed one more year of him on our club.

(Is building a statue of him downtown next to Kirby Puckett and Harmon Killebrew not enough to convince him that he's a necessity?)

Anyway, I had another post in mind for today, but that's only because I completely forgot that I'd need to write something up about Mauer's MVP win. So, that means I'm going to have to put my intended post on ice for another time.

Instead, take heart, because for most of us this is a short week! Thanksgiving celebrations are (hopefully) allowing most of us to be done on Wednesday. So because nobody will really be around the office at all on Friday to read my weekly offseason series, I'm going to just pretend that Wednesday is Friday. So check back tomorrow morning for my next installment of Twins Bloggers: Get to Know 'Em, where I'll be interviewing Erin of Plunking Gomez. The weekend's almost here!

The Three Catchers

What a game today! Finally beating Halladay after how many years of trying? I feel bad for the fans that missed that one (me)... So if you want to read about last night's game, may I suggest other fine sources.

Also, Josh Johnson is back with another fine article with some insights into next year.

No, instead of looking at the great game that I happened to miss, or focusing my thoughts on next year, I'm going to check out a concept that's been bugging me for awhile: Is there a tangible difference in how our pitchers fare depending on who's behind the plate?

Way back in Spring Training we heard that the Twins weren't sure if they were going to go with Morales or Butera to complement Redmond while Mauer was on the DL -- the argument being that Butera was a much better defensive catcher and that pitchers seemingly loved throwing to him. The assumption here, to me, was that they did not feel the same about Morales. Where his value obviously lay was with his bat, which went 4-4 in his major league debut and still seems to have plenty of zing in it today.

We all know that Mauer is a defensive whiz, and there were articles earlier in the year about how mature he is in going through pre-game meetings with his pitchers where he lays down the game-plan and so on.

But what about Redmond? Obviously his bat isn't what it once was, and it's certainly not at the level of Jose Morales these days, so why does Gardy continue to give him the nod over Morales on days when Mauer DH's or gets the day off? (Obviously, today's win against Halladay is not taken into account as Morales was the starting catcher. Finally.) My guess would be that his veteran presence and poise behind the plate is the plus over Morales ... but is this just in Gardy's head or do the numbers back it up?

In this analysis, obviously Mauer is the gold standard, but I'm including his numbers with each pitcher as a frame of reference. First -- the original 5:

Scott Baker

Mauer - 17 games and 435 batters: .229 BAA, 4.63 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 7 games and 172 batters: .294 BAA, 3.20 SO/BB ratio

Morales - 3 games and 74 batters: .206 BAA, 2.50 SO/BB ratio

(Small sample size notwithstanding, Baker posts the highest batting average against him when Redmond is behind the plate, although his K-BB comes at a higher clip than Morales.)

Francisco Liriano

Mauer - 14 games and 344 batters: .275 BAA, 1.66 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 5 games and 122 batters: .303 BAA, 3.13 SO/BB ratio

Morales - 4 games and 100 batters: .261 BAA, 2.44 SO/BB ratio

(Again, ditto. In both starter's cases, Cisco and Baker seem to post a better batting average against than even Mauer does.)

Kevin Slowey

Mauer - 10 games and 250 batters: .288 BAA, 4.17 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 4 games and 91 batters: .295 BAA, 9.00 SO/BB ratio

Morales - 2 games and 53 batters: .423 BAA, 7.00 SO/BB ratio

(Morales and Slowey seems to not be on the same page. But this is a very limited sample size.)

Glen Perkins

Mauer - 11 games and 226 batters: .346 BAA, 1.92 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 5 games and 135 batters: .248 BAA, 1.63 SO/BB ratio

Morales - 3 games and 62 batters: .271 BAA, 3.00 SO/BB ratio

(This skews things. Redmond's starts with Perk seem to fare better, although Perk just generally isn't a strikeout pitcher.)

Nick Blackburn

Mauer - 14 games and 385 batters: .312 BAA, 2.53 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 10 games and 260 batters: .278 BAA, 1.54 SO/BB ratio

Morales - 5 games and 113 batters: .269 BAA, 1.43 SO/BB ratio

(Mauer seems to be the weak backstop here, although how he gets Contact Pitcher Blackburn's SO/BB ratio to climb is clever.)

And the replacement pitchers?

Brian Duensing

Mauer - 13 games and 175 batters: .240 BAA, 2.00 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 5 games and 66 batters: .293 BAA, 1.38 SO/BB ratio

Morales - 1 game and 11 batters: .200 BAA, 1 K no walks

(Morales only caught Duensing in one game in the majors, but it was a beauty.)

Anthony Swarzak

Mauer - 9 games and 199 batters: .298 BAA, 1.86 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 3 games and 69 batters: .349 BAA, 1.33 SO/BB ratio

(Morales hasn't caught Swarzak yet in the majors. But even though Swarzak hasn't exactly shined brightly in the majors, he did pitch his best with Mauer behind the plate and got lit up with Redmond back there.)

Jeff Manship

Mauer - 6 games and 65 batters: .263 BAA, 1.14 SO/BB ratio

Manship - 1 game and 10 batters: .556 BAA, 1 K, no walks.

(Small sample size, yes, but what a skew.)

Carl Pavano

Mauer - 5 games and 131 batters: .279 BAA, 4.00 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 1 game and 29 batters: .192 BAA, 2.00 SO/BB ratio

(Redmond called a beautiful game the one time these two squared up.)

OK, so the numbers don't definitively prove everything here, but they are interesting. Slowey and Morales don't seem to have the greatest numbers together, neither do Swarzak, Liriano, Baker or Duensing when paired with Redmond.

And in the bullpen of many arms:

Joe Nathan

Mauer - 42 games and 162 batters: .169 BAA, 4.67 SO-BB ratio

Redmond - 6 games and 24 batters: .238 BAA, 2.33 SO-BB ratio

Morales - 9 games and 32 batters: .167 BAA, 5.50 SO-BB ratio

(Morales and Nathan rock when they team up. Red's numbers lag here, although it's hard to lag too much with the all-star on the mound.)

Matt Guerrier

Mauer - 46 games and 173 batters: .193 BAA, 6.20 SO-BB ratio

Redmond - 12 games and 44 batters: .275 BAA, 2.67 SO-BB ratio

Morales - 10 games and 41 batters: .158 BAA, 1.67 SO-BB ratio

(Again, Morales and Mauer both shine with Matty G, but Redmond, not as much.)

Jose Mijares

Mauer - 43 games and 155 batters: .206 BAA, 2.33 SO-BB ratio

Redmond - 11 games and 42 batters: .278 BAA, 1.50 SO-BB ratio

Morales - 5 games and 20 batters: .167 BAA, 3.00 SO-BB ratio

(Trend.)

Jesse Crain

Mauer - 29 games and 127 batters: .257 BAA, 1.77 SO-BB ratio

Redmond - 12 games and 43 batters: .333 BAA, 1.50 SO-BB ratio

Morales - 3 games and 10 batters: .000 BAA, 3.00 SO-BB ratio

(Extremely limited sample size, but trend.)

Jon Rauch

Mauer - 1 game and 4 batters: .250 BAA, no K's or walks

Redmond - 3 games and 13 batters: .400 BAA, 1.00 SO-BB ratio

Morales - 1 game and 4 batters: .250 BAA, 2 K's no walks

(Extreme microcosm, but you see where this goes.)

Bobby Keppel

Mauer - 18 games and 118 batters: .245 BAA, 2.11 SO-BB ratio

Redmond - 8 games and 67 batters: .356 BAA, 1.14 SO-BB ratio

(Morales isn't a factor here, but if you take Keppel's line with Mauer only he really hasn't been that bad it seems.)

I'll spare you the rest of the many pitchers.

Ok, so it's tough to read too much into these numbers. Much of this falls on the pitcher's shoulders as well, but I used to do a bit of pitching myself when I was younger and I do believe there's something to be said for a certain connection between battery mates. Also, when a pitcher's numbers with one catcher in particular particularly skew, that could be kind of telling. 

My die-hard Yankee fan boss and I were talking just the other day about how pitchers hate pitching to Posada and that there's a noticeable difference in especially Burnett and Chamberlain's games when Jorge catches. I think there's at least a little something to this.

My main point is that at least on the surface level, there doesn't seem to be a downgrade on the whole when Morales is behind the plate versus Redmond. Even Mauer to some extent. Morales has been teaming up well with most of the pitchers on this staff, and in some cases, he's paired up better than Redmond has so far.

I love Red, and I think he is an invaluable clubhouse presence and veteran leader on this team. But it's not his bat that's keeping him in the lineup these days, and I don't think his game-calling is substantially better than Morales, so favoring him over youth at this point isn't really helping the team right now. I'd like to see Morales starting games where Mauer doesn't, as is backed up by today's showing against Halladay and the Jays.

That's my case.