The Three Catchers

What a game today! Finally beating Halladay after how many years of trying? I feel bad for the fans that missed that one (me)... So if you want to read about last night's game, may I suggest other fine sources.

Also, Josh Johnson is back with another fine article with some insights into next year.

No, instead of looking at the great game that I happened to miss, or focusing my thoughts on next year, I'm going to check out a concept that's been bugging me for awhile: Is there a tangible difference in how our pitchers fare depending on who's behind the plate?

Way back in Spring Training we heard that the Twins weren't sure if they were going to go with Morales or Butera to complement Redmond while Mauer was on the DL -- the argument being that Butera was a much better defensive catcher and that pitchers seemingly loved throwing to him. The assumption here, to me, was that they did not feel the same about Morales. Where his value obviously lay was with his bat, which went 4-4 in his major league debut and still seems to have plenty of zing in it today.

We all know that Mauer is a defensive whiz, and there were articles earlier in the year about how mature he is in going through pre-game meetings with his pitchers where he lays down the game-plan and so on.

But what about Redmond? Obviously his bat isn't what it once was, and it's certainly not at the level of Jose Morales these days, so why does Gardy continue to give him the nod over Morales on days when Mauer DH's or gets the day off? (Obviously, today's win against Halladay is not taken into account as Morales was the starting catcher. Finally.) My guess would be that his veteran presence and poise behind the plate is the plus over Morales ... but is this just in Gardy's head or do the numbers back it up?

In this analysis, obviously Mauer is the gold standard, but I'm including his numbers with each pitcher as a frame of reference. First -- the original 5:

Scott Baker

Mauer - 17 games and 435 batters: .229 BAA, 4.63 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 7 games and 172 batters: .294 BAA, 3.20 SO/BB ratio

Morales - 3 games and 74 batters: .206 BAA, 2.50 SO/BB ratio

(Small sample size notwithstanding, Baker posts the highest batting average against him when Redmond is behind the plate, although his K-BB comes at a higher clip than Morales.)

Francisco Liriano

Mauer - 14 games and 344 batters: .275 BAA, 1.66 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 5 games and 122 batters: .303 BAA, 3.13 SO/BB ratio

Morales - 4 games and 100 batters: .261 BAA, 2.44 SO/BB ratio

(Again, ditto. In both starter's cases, Cisco and Baker seem to post a better batting average against than even Mauer does.)

Kevin Slowey

Mauer - 10 games and 250 batters: .288 BAA, 4.17 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 4 games and 91 batters: .295 BAA, 9.00 SO/BB ratio

Morales - 2 games and 53 batters: .423 BAA, 7.00 SO/BB ratio

(Morales and Slowey seems to not be on the same page. But this is a very limited sample size.)

Glen Perkins

Mauer - 11 games and 226 batters: .346 BAA, 1.92 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 5 games and 135 batters: .248 BAA, 1.63 SO/BB ratio

Morales - 3 games and 62 batters: .271 BAA, 3.00 SO/BB ratio

(This skews things. Redmond's starts with Perk seem to fare better, although Perk just generally isn't a strikeout pitcher.)

Nick Blackburn

Mauer - 14 games and 385 batters: .312 BAA, 2.53 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 10 games and 260 batters: .278 BAA, 1.54 SO/BB ratio

Morales - 5 games and 113 batters: .269 BAA, 1.43 SO/BB ratio

(Mauer seems to be the weak backstop here, although how he gets Contact Pitcher Blackburn's SO/BB ratio to climb is clever.)

And the replacement pitchers?

Brian Duensing

Mauer - 13 games and 175 batters: .240 BAA, 2.00 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 5 games and 66 batters: .293 BAA, 1.38 SO/BB ratio

Morales - 1 game and 11 batters: .200 BAA, 1 K no walks

(Morales only caught Duensing in one game in the majors, but it was a beauty.)

Anthony Swarzak

Mauer - 9 games and 199 batters: .298 BAA, 1.86 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 3 games and 69 batters: .349 BAA, 1.33 SO/BB ratio

(Morales hasn't caught Swarzak yet in the majors. But even though Swarzak hasn't exactly shined brightly in the majors, he did pitch his best with Mauer behind the plate and got lit up with Redmond back there.)

Jeff Manship

Mauer - 6 games and 65 batters: .263 BAA, 1.14 SO/BB ratio

Manship - 1 game and 10 batters: .556 BAA, 1 K, no walks.

(Small sample size, yes, but what a skew.)

Carl Pavano

Mauer - 5 games and 131 batters: .279 BAA, 4.00 SO/BB ratio

Redmond - 1 game and 29 batters: .192 BAA, 2.00 SO/BB ratio

(Redmond called a beautiful game the one time these two squared up.)

OK, so the numbers don't definitively prove everything here, but they are interesting. Slowey and Morales don't seem to have the greatest numbers together, neither do Swarzak, Liriano, Baker or Duensing when paired with Redmond.

And in the bullpen of many arms:

Joe Nathan

Mauer - 42 games and 162 batters: .169 BAA, 4.67 SO-BB ratio

Redmond - 6 games and 24 batters: .238 BAA, 2.33 SO-BB ratio

Morales - 9 games and 32 batters: .167 BAA, 5.50 SO-BB ratio

(Morales and Nathan rock when they team up. Red's numbers lag here, although it's hard to lag too much with the all-star on the mound.)

Matt Guerrier

Mauer - 46 games and 173 batters: .193 BAA, 6.20 SO-BB ratio

Redmond - 12 games and 44 batters: .275 BAA, 2.67 SO-BB ratio

Morales - 10 games and 41 batters: .158 BAA, 1.67 SO-BB ratio

(Again, Morales and Mauer both shine with Matty G, but Redmond, not as much.)

Jose Mijares

Mauer - 43 games and 155 batters: .206 BAA, 2.33 SO-BB ratio

Redmond - 11 games and 42 batters: .278 BAA, 1.50 SO-BB ratio

Morales - 5 games and 20 batters: .167 BAA, 3.00 SO-BB ratio

(Trend.)

Jesse Crain

Mauer - 29 games and 127 batters: .257 BAA, 1.77 SO-BB ratio

Redmond - 12 games and 43 batters: .333 BAA, 1.50 SO-BB ratio

Morales - 3 games and 10 batters: .000 BAA, 3.00 SO-BB ratio

(Extremely limited sample size, but trend.)

Jon Rauch

Mauer - 1 game and 4 batters: .250 BAA, no K's or walks

Redmond - 3 games and 13 batters: .400 BAA, 1.00 SO-BB ratio

Morales - 1 game and 4 batters: .250 BAA, 2 K's no walks

(Extreme microcosm, but you see where this goes.)

Bobby Keppel

Mauer - 18 games and 118 batters: .245 BAA, 2.11 SO-BB ratio

Redmond - 8 games and 67 batters: .356 BAA, 1.14 SO-BB ratio

(Morales isn't a factor here, but if you take Keppel's line with Mauer only he really hasn't been that bad it seems.)

I'll spare you the rest of the many pitchers.

Ok, so it's tough to read too much into these numbers. Much of this falls on the pitcher's shoulders as well, but I used to do a bit of pitching myself when I was younger and I do believe there's something to be said for a certain connection between battery mates. Also, when a pitcher's numbers with one catcher in particular particularly skew, that could be kind of telling. 

My die-hard Yankee fan boss and I were talking just the other day about how pitchers hate pitching to Posada and that there's a noticeable difference in especially Burnett and Chamberlain's games when Jorge catches. I think there's at least a little something to this.

My main point is that at least on the surface level, there doesn't seem to be a downgrade on the whole when Morales is behind the plate versus Redmond. Even Mauer to some extent. Morales has been teaming up well with most of the pitchers on this staff, and in some cases, he's paired up better than Redmond has so far.

I love Red, and I think he is an invaluable clubhouse presence and veteran leader on this team. But it's not his bat that's keeping him in the lineup these days, and I don't think his game-calling is substantially better than Morales, so favoring him over youth at this point isn't really helping the team right now. I'd like to see Morales starting games where Mauer doesn't, as is backed up by today's showing against Halladay and the Jays.

That's my case.

E is for Elimination

September is the time of year when teams who are actually in contention begin watching their Elimination Number to find out when they clinch the division. Or, it could also be the number you watch slowly shrink as you shuffle off into oblivion until spring comes again.

I've been ignoring this number, because instead I've had the optimism to focus on the "Games behind" stat. Which currently sits at 7 as I write this and if Detroit stays ahead of Kansas City, it will be 7.5, if they lose, it will be 6.5. Regardless, it's been growing.

Our E number stands at 19. For some reason, 19 games until elimination is a much more palatable number for me to comprehend than 7 games behind. It seems as if there's more season left to play, and that's always a good thing in my book (although my roommate has already turned his attention to football).

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What little I caught of the game tonight due to an incredibly busy workload today, shows me that: A) completely resting Joe Mauer and starting Mike Redmond = white flag, B) Jose Morales and his great pinch-hitting performances (even if they end in an out he battles like a rock star) would be much more useful if they appeared several times a game, thus, again, why Redmond? and C) I think letting Justin Huber -- and hopefully Valencia at some point -- get some swings would actually make me more excited to watch the games than seeing our current team flail about. Maybe playing some of our youngsters wouldn't be giving up? Look at what the infusion of new blood did to give Cleveland somewhat of a boost?

For some reason I got the Toronto broadcast on my MLB Extra Innings package, and for those of you listening to Dick & Bert, you missed some sincere adoration of Joe Mauer's ability and praise for Jose Mijares and what a gem he's been for our bullpen. I tend to agree. In fact, I feel more comfortable with Mijares out there than Guerrier.

Honestly though, looking at their numbers, Guerrier has been more effective than Mijares recently. Let's take a look at two splits in particular that emphasize this:

1st half vs. 2nd half

A lot of people argue that Gardy has been running Guerrier into the ground and he wears down in the second half of the season. Well, in the 1st half, batters were hitting 1.99 against him in 159 plate appearances, and he posted a 3.38 SO/BB ration. And, although the season isn't over, he has posted an ever-so-slighty higher BAA of .204 in 99 plate appearances -- although his SO/BB ratio has also increased to 5.67. Oddly enough, even with a slightly elevated BAA in the 2nd half so far, it's still lower than Mijares.

Mijares posted a .217 BAA in the 1st half, and it dropped down to .213 in the 2nd half, which is quite good, but Guerrier's been even better! Similarly, his SO/BB ratio has been lower than Guerrier's in both halves, as it was 1.79 in the first half and has increased to 3.00 now.

Platoon Lefties vs. Righties

Mijares seems most adequately suited as the lefty specialist, and, true to form, he's held lefties to a .227 BAA and 2.50 SO/BB ratio in 94 plate appearances, and against righties it's elevated to .282BAA and his SO/BB ratio drops to 1.91 in 119 plate appearances.

But wait just a second ... Guerrier is actually more effective against lefties and righties -- this despite being a right handed pitcher and probably being the assumed counterpart of a "righty specialist" to Mijares. Guerrier boasts a .221 BAA and a 4.00 SO/BB ratio in 155 plate appearances against righties, but his numbers against lefties are actually better. He's posted a .170 BAA, exactly the same SO/BB ratio, and has done this over 103 plate appearances.

All this just makes me wonder why I trust Mijares more than Guerrier? Perhaps it's because I've simply seen Guerrier's mistakes in person more than I have of Mijares. Or that squat lefties who look like Rich Garces just make me feel giddy.

Don't get me wrong, I think they're both excellent weapons in the bullpen. The thing that Mijares has on Guerrier though, is age. We can probably expect Mijares to keep getting better as he reaches his prime, and we've probably been witnessing Guerrier's best years. I stick by a comments dialogue I had with Erin over at Plunking Gomez awhile back, that we might be wise to sell high on Guerrier this offseason as we could have a crowded bullpen and his dominance might bring us a nice return due to the shortage of reliable bullpen arms. It sounds strange, but if you think about it, it makes sense.

Assuming we carry 6-7 relievers, we can wager that Nathan, Mijares, and Rauch are locks. Crain will very probably come back. Neshek will hopefully be back, but even if he isn't, Bonser will probably net a bullpen role. You still have to consider Slama, Delaney, and probably Gabino. And if we land a veteran starter or not, we will most likely have a long relief man in the form of Manship, Duensing, Swarzak or maybe Perkins. Even though we've considered our bullpen a weakpoint for awhile now, Guerrier might just be expendable enough to still bring us a decent package that if Smith gets a good offer he should probably act.

Just a thought...

Sad fact: Toronto announcers during the game bemoaned the poor state of the Pirates -- they are the only professional sports team in North America to endure 17 straight losing seasons. Ouch. At least Twins fans can take heart that we haven't reached that level of despair.

Around the blogosphere: If you haven't seen k-bro's pledge yet, check it out and try to pledge along! Over the Baggy has some more assurance on why we shouldn't worry too much about Nathan. And Twins Fix has some great analysis of why Gomez is the better option than Delmon Young.

Rejoice! I say again, rejoice!

Let me just say, yes, that was an awesome game to be at. I think my timing was right for coming back to Minnesota, it's already been a success (and I haven't even eaten the cheese curds at the fair yet).

I would like to give a huge thank you to two of my favorite Twins bloggers and two of the best Twins fans I'll meet, Katie of KC's Baseball Blog, and Betsy of For the Love of the Game, as both of them met me before the game and showed me their slightly-less-than-legal way of viewing Target Field (which amounts to scaling a wall in a parking garage and then being blown away by the beautiful future of outdoor baseball in Minnesota). My lack of a camera prevents me from posting this view, but I think Betsy might have us covered so check out her site! And for the record, it's probably a good thing we didn't jinx anything with "Sweep the Sox". Also, Katie apparently wears lucky jerseys, as Cuddyer had quite a night and she was representing him -- I vote we all pitch in to buy her a jersey for every player which she can then wear at the appropriate time.

I'd also like to give another huge thank you to Jay for taking me to the game with his friend's season tickets and putting up with me rambling on about SABR even though I'm sure he just wanted to punch me -- and no, Jay, I still think Punto and Cabrera are dreadful and I'd rather them be replaced.

Thanks also need to go out to Jose Morales, we all know why. 

As much as I love Redmond, I really think Morales needs to be our back-up to Mauer. If Redmond retires anytime soon, I'm sure there will be a position in Twins management open to him and I know everyone would love to have him within the organization.

Lastly, Tim Laudner, if you're reading this, you're great. 1987 World Series team: awesome, and Don Baylor was totally safe, you knocked him in during Game 7, umps know nothing.

I'm going to enjoy the game from the first row tomorrow, and I'll use my proximity to third base to get into Gordon Beckham's head. For now, check out some more White Sox whining from this last game, and I'll leave you with an Ozzie Guillen inspirational poster I found while scrolling around online: