Dreaming of Roy

Normally when you a see top tier trade target you can take the Twins out of the running, so when Roy Oswalt decided to declare his eligibility on the trade market (much to Houston's chagrin, I'm sure) it took me awhile to realize that we might actually have interest.

The Twins have set the standard high this year -- making sweeping moves in the offseason, locking up the best player in baseball to a record contract, and matching those moves with solid upper echelon play on the field.

The only thing lacking? A legitimate ace. Liriano could be that ace if he keeps that magic alive and forgets his last few starts, but it's not so often you see someone of Oswalt's caliber waiting to fall into your lap.

I could get into all sorts of stats that show that despite entering his mid-thirties he's still a better starter than anyone on our staff, but Gleeman is much better to read in that regard. Let me just sum up a few thoughts:

Negatives:

- Salary. We've committed a lot of money to the team we have and Oswalt's owed a good chunk of money this year and next. Sure, the front office has been willing to spend this offseason for a contender, but how much is too much? If we acquire Oswalt we could be stretching our budget at the seams, and that always leads to disappointment and payroll shedding.

- Who does he replace? Slowey's been a little ineffective this season but do you give up on him when we all know how good he can be? If not Slowey, I don't think that Pavano, Baker, Liriano, or Blackburn have done anything to justify demotion. Perhaps his acquisition would simply bump Slowey or Blackburn into something of a long-relief role in the 'pen? I suppose too many starters is a good thing but you still have to answer who doesn't take the mound every fifth day.

- What do we have to give up? I don't think Oswalt will command a king's ransom, but he won't be cheap either. Houston's top prospect is a catcher so I doubt Wilson Ramos becomes a trade chip. So what other top prospects do we build a trade around? I don't think anyone wants to put Kyle Gibson in a package, that would be shortsighted. Is Ben Revere blue-chip enough? Maybe something like Ben Revere, Alex Burnett and Jeff Manship? Or maybe Bromberg and Revere? Whoever we give up for Oswalt is going to hurt and it's going to be a risk. There's no way we send them Luke Hughes and Drew Butera...

Positives:

- He's durable and effective. Last year was a little bit of an off year for him, but other than that you could bank on 30 starts, 200 innings, and a respectable ERA, WHIP, and K/BB ratio. That's the kind of pitcher every team wants and someone I'm sure we would to.

- He'd be our ace. That would take a ton of pressure off Liriano, who everyone still looks to this year to carry this rotation. If Oswalt is here to take some of that pressure off, perhaps Liriano can find his groove with a little less spotlight shining on him.

- He legitimizes us. I think every national writer loves the Twins but remarks on how we don't have any established stud in our rotation yet. Oswalt being a Twin changes all of that, and we suddenly become a team that goes toe-to-toe with anyone in a short postseason series.

- He could also take Peavy out drinking whenever we face the White Sox and perhaps get him in trouble...

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All that being said, I think there's legitimate reason to pursue Oswalt if the price is right. I actually wouldn't be surprised this year if we winds up in a Twins uniform, but I don't think I'd be heartbroken if he doesn't land with us.

Thoughts?

We Can Still Trade Delmon!

I must say, I'm extremely happy that JJ Hardy is officially a Twin. It hasn't really set in yet that Carlos Gomez and all his exuberance and funny antics will no longer be a part of our team, but it's nice to look at that shortstop position on our roster and know that we have a quality major league player locking it down.

You, sir, are a shortstop. And a good one.

It seems that everyone's biggest criticism of this move is that our outfield defense has been set with Cuddyer occupying right field, Span in center, and Young in left. While that certainly looks to be the case, remember that the offseason has just begun.

I would still be perfectly happy packaging Delmon Young and shipping him off too. If the Twins are finally ready to concede how awful both the Santana and the Garza/Bartlett trades were, why not just scrap both of them and start anew? I still think we could pry something away for Delmon Young. He's not that far removed from his successful rookie year, and he's shown enough flashes of greatness down the stretch the past two years that someone should be willing to take a chance on him.

Most everyone will concede that Denard Span's defense isn't quite up to par in centerfield, but is exceptionally better in left or right. If I were Bill Smith, I'd start looking at free agent and trade candidate center fielders -- and there are several realistic options out there.

Of course we could always grab Mike Cameron and allow both he and JJ Hardy a mini Brewer's reunion party at Target Field. But even if the Twins didn't want to go after someone on the Cameron level of 7 or 8 million a year, they could easily take a flier on a couple other candidates:

Endy Chavez

Chavez has always been a great defensive outfielder, and adding him to our roster would easily upgrade our outfield defense. He should come relatively cheap too, at around 2 or 3 million for a year. Perhaps a 2-year deal to provide a stop-gap until someone like Ben Revere is ready to take over?

Coco Crisp

Crisp is coming off one of his worst seasons as a batter (.228/.336/.378), but his glove should still be sharp, and those numbers are a cry from his 8-year average of .277/.331/.407. The Royals weren't willing to pay him $8M next year, so they bought out his option. He is joining the wrong-side of 30 for a baseball player who relies on speed and defense, but he figures to have a few productive years ahead of him, and just like Chavez he could be a useful and inexpensive holdover until our better prospects are ready to come.

Of course those are just a couple of the potential free agent names that spring to mind. There are also a few trade candidates out there who shouldn't cost an arm and a leg to pry away from their teams. I bet we could pull a Matt Guerrier-for-Juan Pierre trade.

Pierre's a solid center fielder and a career .301 hitter who wouldn't be a bad fit in that second spot in our lineup for starters (although he does bat lefthanded and wouldn't break up the Span-Mauer-Morneau lefty combo). He comes at a steep salary, but the Twins could still handle it, especially for such a good player. The Dodgers definitely don't need him, with Kemp, Ethier, and Ramirez already locking down their outfield, so I'm sure they'd rather take a year of Guerrier than pay $10M for a bench player/pinch runner. The Twins could certainly use someone of his particular skill set.

I'd even take Felix Pie.

Mmmm, Pie.

Not the best hitter, but a decent glove, and the Orioles certainly make some weird trades, so, maybe we could trade them Rick Stelmascek?

Hey, don't be upset, you'd be helping us get a center-fielder.

If we got Pie from the Orioles and upgraded at either 2B or 3B, we'd still have a pretty solid lineup next year and keep our outfield defense intact.

Of course we have a stock of minor league center fielders coming through, so someone like Crisp, Chavez, or Pierre would perhaps make more sense than someone like Pie, as we'd only need them for one or two years until one of our better prospects is ready to take over.

Rene Tosoni profiles more as a corner outfielder although he's played center some in the minors. He's perhaps the most major-league ready, but right on his heels is Ben Revere, who is one of the best prospects in our system and has steadily moved up a level each year. He should be ready to debut in 2011 or 2012 at the latest if he keeps this pace.

Even further back are Joe Benson, Angel Morales and Aaron Hicks, who could be ready in 2012 or 2013, and many wouldn't be hesitant to label them All-Stars once they arrive.

Anyway, my point is simply that we shouldn't just think that we're stuck with Delmon in the lineup every day because we traded away Gomez. We shouldn't be hesitant to trade Young, as there are enough center fielders out there that we could afford to snag one of them for a year or two until some of our guys are ready to come up, and that way Span can still be an everyday starter in left, where he should be.

Just my thoughts.

Make sure to listen in as I rejoin Jack Steal this Wednesday for his podcast at 9PM CST/10PM EST!

A Piece the Twins SHOULD Trade

By now, enough other bloggers have expounded on the fact that the Twins will probably only have around $20 million dollars or so at most to spend this offseason, and that will have to cover any restructuring of Joe Mauer's contract and plug all the leaks that have sprung in the infield and rotation. This could be a tall task for a Twins front office that hasn't displayed much in the way of creativity over its short tenure.

Consequently, one of the off-season options we could potentially expect to see again would be a significant trade. Twins Fix poses Jason Kubel as a potential tradable asset in a very well-thought out article. While I'd have to agree that if Kubel were able to net us a gold-mine, we should be willing to part with him, I'm not sure if he's the most likely candidate.

Kubel's position on our offense has been invaluable. And we have him at a relative bargain for at least the next two years if the Twins pick up their option (and I don't see how they wouldn't). After endless seasons of not having much power in the middle of our lineup, Kubel's presence has solidified a punch that I don't think we would be able to easily replace for a decent value on the free agent market or in our farm system. Without him, our potent lineup takes a big knock.

I'd like to pose that the Twins should deal from an area where they have overabundance. That area, believe it or not, is in our bullpen.

The Twins are going to have a massive group of pitchers lining up for a spot in their bullpen this year, and one area that practically every team in the majors is always looking to address (and always willing to overpay for) is in the bullpen.

Don't scoff. It's true that this past offseason, and up until our acquisition of Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay at the waiver deadline, the bullpen was a major achilles heel for our team as well. But with all the major players from this last year returning, in addition to Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek, and several people knocking on the door in Rochester, we might just have too few spots for all the available arms.

I am not advocating trading Joe Nathan.

Joe Nathan is one of the best closers in baseball, and no untimely misfortune in a high-pressure series against the Yankees will convince me otherwise. Give me one relief pitcher I want to see trot out of a bullpen in a close game and 5 out of 5 times I'll take Nathan.

I think we need to trade Matt Guerrier.

I love Guerrier. I think Guerrier is a quality bullpen arm and has been the second most reliable person out of our pen the past few years. I also think he performed well over his head this past year, and his value will never be higher.

The old adage is that it's better to trade a player too soon than too late. The ideal would to be trading that player right after they've peaked. Matt Guerrier is 31, his prime is just behind him, and he just posted a career year, with a 2.36 ERA and a 0.969 WHIP (well below his 6-year career numbers of a 3.41 ERA and 1.269 WHIP). He also was tied with Jeremy Affeldt for the most "Holds" (a meaningless stat but a stat nonetheless) with 33 on the season, 5 more than the next best of the set-up men.

I think Guerrier still has several solid years as a set-up man, but I would be willing to wager almost anything he doesn't post numbers like these again. (See Erin's article at Plunking Gomez for more on Guerrier's sustainability.)

Consider for a minute that next year we will have 6-7 spots open in the bullpen. You can assume that Joe Nathan, Jose Mijares and Jon Rauch will occupy 3 of those spots. Unless Jesse Crain is non-tendered, he is also a lock, and the way he pitched since coming back from his demotion to Rochester I have to believe that Crain will remain on our team. As frustrating as he's been, he's not been all that bad of a relief pitcher compared to many others.

I believe that that both Neshek and Bonser will be members of the bullpen as well. And between Liriano, Perkins, and Duensing, only one of them will likely make the rotation while the other two will either be traded or moved to the bullpen.

That's at least 7 good-to-serviceable arms in the pen, not counting Guerrier's. Top that with the fact that Gardenhire is strongly pushing to bring Mahay back under contract, and we have those vaunted prospects of Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama waiting for their shot down in Rochester. We have too many options!

Guerrier is entering his third year of arbitration after making nearly $1.5M in '09. In 2011 he'll hit free agency and the Twins will certainly not retain him. By all means the Twins should see how much somebody would be willing to overpay in a trade.

Perhaps the Angels or Dodgers, who both have suffered this past post-season from ineffective bullpens? Or perhaps Guerrier could be packaged with someone like Delmon Young or Glen Perkins to make a sweeter offer for an infielder like JJ Hardy or Yunel Escobar?

Truth be told, I don't know what kind of package we could get in return for one year of Guerrier, but I imagine that there are many teams looking for a solid reliever, and Guerrier is coming off his best year while the Twins suddenly find themselves with a surplus of bullpen arms for 2010. Some things just make sense.

You too can pretend to dream up brilliant moves and imagine you're the Twins GM, and the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook is not only a useful tool for your musings, but it is packed with enough information to get you through the lonely winter months of the offseason. And it's only $9.95! That's a real deal, especially considering all the free blogging that John Bonnes, Seth Stohs, Parker Hageman, and Nick Nelson have supplied us with on a daily basis.

Anyway, that's all for now. Be sure to check back later this week. I'll be rejoining Jack Steal on his podcast Wednesday night for another go-round, and on Friday I'll be continuing my Twins Bloggers: Get to Know 'Em segment focusing on Betsy of For the Love of the Game!

Punto vs. Tolbert, Who is the Scrappiest of Them All?

Everyone who remotely follows the Twins is familiar enough by now with manager Ron Gardenhire's obsession with scrappy, light-hitting, infielders who "hustle their tail off", and two of the biggest examples we've seen over his tenure both happen to be on the team right now: Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert.

Pictured here sandwiching fellow "futility infielder" Alexi Casilla

Both will most likely figure into the team's plans for next year, with one being a likely starter (Punto), and the other hopefully only being a bench option if he makes the roster (Tolbert), but that could all change if the Twins find any other realistic options either in-house or via trade/free-agency, as practically ever position on the infield except for Morneau and Mauer probably figure to be question marks.

The Twins will likely have 13-14 positions on their roster for hitters, and and after subtracting probably 5 spots for the outfield, one for Morneau at 1B, one for Mauer at catcher, and one for Morales as the back-up catcher, that leaves us with 5-6 spots, including the starting 2B, SS and 3B. Barring some crazy occurrence, you can almost guarantee one of those starting spots will be occupied by Nick Punto.

Pictured here flying through the air, as he always appears to do.

The Twins already have Punto under contract for around $4M next year, and Buscher, Tolbert, Harris, and Casilla will all either be under team control or receive minimal arbitration salaries. I doubt anyone who follows this team looks forward to those 5 players rounding out our infield next year, but unless they look into the minors (Hughes, Valencia, Plouffe, Huber, Peterson), that's probably the group we'll be choosing from.

The only thing keeping Buscher on this roster is his friendship with Morneau and the fact that he knows how to hold a bat left-handed (swinging it is another story), and Casilla and Harris are probably so far in Gardy's doghouse that they'll be lucky if they're on the roster next year. In truth, Harris is probably the one of those 5 we should keep around, but he'll also be the easiest for the front office to ship to another team and actually get something back in return.

That leaves Punto and Tolbert, with three people who very well might replace Buscher, Harris and Casilla, yet to be identified and will make themselves known this offseason. So let's familiarize ourselves with Mr. Punto and Mr. Tolbert, as I'm sure we'll grow accustomed to them next year.

Punto pictured here, diving through the air ... again

Tolbert pictured here, apparently knows how to plant his feet.

Nick Punto

The definition of a scrappy switch-hitter, Punto is turning 33 this November (happy early birthday), and in 9 seasons of major league service he's amassed a .249/.321/.326 slash line with 12HR, 174RBI, and 83 stolen bases.

He's quite the enigma, I don't know if we'll ever quite figure out who the real Nick Punto is. Breaking down his individual seasons, he was strictly a bench utility player from '01-'04, never amassing a significant amount of starts or plate appearances to really see his true style.

Though this, apparently, is part of his style...

He's had 5 years where he has essentially been a starter (and I'm including this year), and oddly enough each year he seems to be the exact opposite of the previous. In '05 he was bad. In '06 he had his best year to date (.290/.352/.373). He dropped back down to non-relevance in '07 before rebounding slightly last year by posting .284/.344/.382 slashes. This year? Well, it's an odd numbered year so he's struggling away again at .232/.332/.288 with 1HR and 34RBI (this is even taking into account his recent slew of superb play, so, picture how bad his numbers looked before this...)

In the field, Punto has held his own. He's posted a .976 fielding percentage this year at SS (though that's dropped slightly to .973 this year), and that's been just slightly more than league average.

But does THIS look league average to YOU?

At 2B he's just slightly below league average, displaying a .983 career fielding percentage, two points lower than the league.

At 3B he's actually well above the league average of .958, as he's actually posted a .970 fielding percentage there. My amateur opinion on this would be that 3B is typically more offense-oriented, and so to have a cat-like middle infielder at the hot corner he'd be fielding the position better than some of the more "bat-oriented" players who are filling it on other teams.

Unfortunately, we're paying Punto a salary equivalent to that of Jason Kubel, which pretty much cements the fact that he'd better lock down a starting spot because we don't want to pay $4M for a bench player. The Twins would probably be better off releasing Punto (or trying to trade him), because they essentially have a younger (read: cheaper) version of him in Matt Tolbert.

Matt Tolbert

Pictured here thinking "Who? Me?"

Tolbert is 6 years younger than Punto (math says he's 27), and also a switch hitter (and making 3.5 million less, thankfully). With the void of no-Joe Crede haunting us, Tolbert has inexplicably apparently been handed the starting 3B job over the platoon of Buscher and Harris. Even more amazingly, he's been holding his own, though nothing leads me to believe that this will last.

He saw limited big-league action for the first time in '08 (123 plate appearances), and responded with a respectable .283/.322/.389 slash and 7 stolen bases (though he was walking less than once for every two strikeouts). Those numbers were relatively in line with his 6 seasons of minor-league ball, where he posted a career .280/.341/.404 with limited power, decent speed (47 stolen bases, caught 19 times), and around the same strikeout-walk ratio.

For whatever reason, his numbers have plummeted down to Punto-level this year, and although the season isn't over, he's amassed more plate appearances than last time. He's currently sitting on a .221/.301/.266 slash with 6 stolen bases and his normal strikeout-walk ratio.  

Whereas Punto as a switch hitter only has a modest difference in his splits batting right-handed vs. left-handed batting, Tolbert skews more significantly. As a lefty versus right-handed pitchers, he's hitting .198/.288/.207, but as a righty hitting lefties, he's .279/.333/.419.

I don't want to get too down on Tolbert. He could actually be a decent bench-option and serviceable player if that kind of role wasn't already taken up by Punto. But to have two of them on the 25-man roster next year is a little ridiculous. And if Punto wasn't there, you can sure bet that Gardy would find a way to sneak Tolbert into an every-day spot so he wouldn't really be filling the role he's best suited for anyway.

It's harder finding pictures of Tolbert sprawling all over the place...

As far as fielding goes, Tolbert has a small sample size at each position. At SS, he appears to have about a .978 fielding percentage, which is somewhat better than league average. At 2B, he's almost exactly league average (he's .987, average is .986). And at 3B his fielding percentage skews drastically down to .930, a good 30 points lower than the average at the position. This is in part due to the fact that he was horrible at 3B in 17 games through '08, but after starting there practically every game this September he's been flawless (1.000 fielding percentage...). Those numbers probably won't remain unblemished for the long-haul, but it seems that regardless of where you put him (SS, 2B, or 3B), he'll be just around league average in terms of fielding.

(I'm not qualified to talk about UZR or Range Factors, I'll leave that to more qualified bloggers.)

Suffice to say, that if Punto is not released or traded this offseason, there's no reason that the Twins should renew him again. Tolbert should easily slide into his role and still be much cheaper, and by the time Tolbert deserves a significant raise, there should be someone else in the pipeline as well, so hopefully we don't hand out another albatross of a contract.

But in the meantime, Punto and Tolbert continue to defy numbers and logic...

and apparently gravity...

...as they hold down 2B and 3B daily in our race to the postseason, and I'm all for it for now. As long as they don't start batting lead-off or in the 2-hole if Span has to miss any games because of his concussion.

Corner Infield Conundrum

Obviously this team has more issues now than it had a week ago. This all but shatters any realistic hopes to stay in the hunt, although I'd like to retain some level of optimism until after I see what happens with Detroit this weekend.

Thankfully, the most logical options for this team to stay competitive also happen to be the same as if we were preparing for next year. How? Good question, glad I asked. Other than Justin Huber, who is already with the team and seems to be battling some lingering health issue himself, two of our top performers in Rochester happen to be corner infielders:

Danny Valencia, 3B

.286/.305/.454, 7HR, 41 RBI (71 games, 282 plate appearances in AAA)

Danny Valencia, the man that almost every blogger I read has been pining to see get some starts, and, I'm included. His offensive numbers are solid, although they dropped off slightly at the end of the season. He's the man that many are already pegging to have the edge at 3B next year as we move into Target Field. The biggest concern I foresee at the moment is his glove, and that could be what's holding him back (besides not currently being on the 40-man roster). During his stint at Rochester, he's committed 12 errors at third base and posted a .927 fielding percentage. Compare that to Crede (.983), Buscher (.979), and Harris (.950) when they start at 3B. In fact, the league average is .958, so it's quite a drop off to .927 -- although that is comparable to what Bobby Crosby and Mark DeRosa have posted there this year. I'd love to see Valencia get some reps nonetheless, as he'll at least be exciting to watch and should bring a solid bat. But I'm worried about seeing him on the field turf right now, and if he comes up and makes some big errors I can only imagine what Gardy's backlash would be. So if bad defense on turf that he won't be seeing next year gets him in Gardy's doghouse, is it worth a call-up?

Brock Peterson, 1B

.304/.376/.468, 10HR, 43RBI (99 games and 356 plate appearances)

Brock Peterson has put in his time in the minors. It's about to the point where the Twins need to figure out if he can contribute at a major league level, and the season he had at Rochester should have warranted a spot on our bench at least in my opinion. His minor league fielding percentage stands at .994 as he committed 4 errors in his starts at 1B in Rochester. And, if it translates, the league average for 1B in the majors is also .994 (Kendry Morales and Miguel Cabrera's defense is good for league average at 1B). With Morneau and Huber not available, Peterson should be a much better fit than Cuddyer at 1B, who posts an ugly .964, well below league average. I'm not a baseball manager or executive, obviously, but with his numbers and the open spot I can't see why he's not already on a plane to Minnesota.

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Calling up these two would allow us to keep our outfielders in the outfield (where they belong), keep Harris, Tolbert, Buscher, and Casilla available off the bench, and potentially even give Morales some DH opportunities if they arise. If Huber's injury goes away, both he and Peterson should compete for the 1B spot and the other would be a nice option off the bench in a critical situation as they both are great bats.

Obviously there could be some growing pains, but I highly doubt they'll be much worse than trying to shove Cuddyer into the lineup at 1B every day and having to watch Delmon Young bumble around in left every night. When the lineup we see everyday looks like this, I can't help but wonder how we're going to score runs:

Span, RF

Cabrera, SS

Mauer, C

Kubel, DH

Cuddyer, 1B

Young, LF

Harris/Buscher, 3B

Gomez, CF

Punto/Casilla, 2B

Adding these two players would allow slightly more offense while not shifting people from their best positions:

Span, LF

Cabrera, SS

Mauer, C

Kubel, DH

Cuddyer, RF

Peterson, 1B

Valencia, 3B

Gomez, CF

Punto/Casilla, 2B

And good bats like Harris, Morales, Huber and even Young would all be available in critical situations.

Bring on the Dirty Laundry!

*Due to the increased importance of this series with the Chicago White Sox, my desire to say goodbye to the Metrodome during a meaningful series, and the lovely convergence of the Minnesota State Fair, I will be returning to Minnesota for Tuesday and Wednesday's games against the White Sox! Let me know if you're going to the game and make sure to say hi! I'm going to bring my lucky Rick Aguilera jersey and sit right down by the field close enough to trash talk Gordon Beckham and try to get inside his head. Let's go Twins!

Leaving for Atlantic City and returning to NYC in the middle of a game in time to watch the Twins have one of their signature Dome rallies in the 8th inning was the perfect way to spend a weekend! We played at the Taj Mahal and The Tropicana this weekend and had a great time. My poker buddies and I didn't win as much as we should have due to some bad beats, but we didn't lose money, which is the key. Similar to the Twins' season thus far, no? They haven't really made the big runs they should have been capable of with the talent of guys like Mauer and Morneau, but here we are going into September and postseason is in the air alongside Minnesota State Fair cheese curds!

Going into this season, I was eyeing this upcoming White Sox series at the Dome, its convergence with the State Fair, and already planning coming back for my last hurrah at our stadium, and I simply prayed that at the very least these games would be meaningful. With the Twins and Sox separated in the standings by only 1 1/2 games and the Twins only 4 1/2 back from the Tigers (who are about to play the suddenly decent Cleveland Indians), we are in great shape. And we could be in even better shape soon!

If the Twins are serious about acquiring Harden, I'm all for it. Penny would be a decent boost to our struggling rotation, but Harden could be the golden ticket. Before being traded from his career in Oakland over to the Cubs last year, Harden has been plagued by an injury history that would make even Michael Cuddyer groan. He holds a career 3.36 ERA and 1.22 WHIP and average just over a strikeout per inning. Plus he's on my fantasy roster already and it would give me one more reason to cheer for him.

If the Twins can sign him to an extension (preferably incentive-laden), that also just might give Mauer the whiff of looming success that he's been hoping for before re-upping.

I must also say that I'm very happy after watching Jon Rauch pitch, and from what I hear, Mahay didn't do awfully himself. At the least, they have adequately replaced Humber and Gabino -- now we just need to see a fresh face in place of Keppel. And speaking of Keppel, I'm not quite ready to give ultimate confidence to Rauch and Mahay just yet, because hopefully we all remember how dominant Keppel looked in his first few starts until his career stats began to catch up with him. But I'm willing to applaud Rauch and Mahay for their performances, and I'll definitely be rooting for them to keep up that level of success and make the Twins look brilliant in their waiver wire maneuvering.

SEPTEMBER CALL-UPS

Things have already been written about the September Call-ups, and I don't mean to add anything that hasn't already been said. But I will say that it looks as if by all means the Twins front office hasn't given up on this season, and judging by Gardy's words and the Twins' place in the standing we're going to have to wait to see some of our long-anticipated prospects hoist a bat or toe the rubber in the majors.

Obviously Morales was going to come up, I don't think anyone didn't see that coming. But the real question was whether the front office would keep the party line and bring back Buscher, Tolbert, Swarzak and Dickey, or whether we'd see some of our better prospects (who might not be as refined yet), like Valencia, Tolleson, Plouffe, Hughes, Huber, Slama, and Delaney. At least Gardy stated that he wanted to see Valencia up but he's being told that "it's not the time". I just wonder who exactly is telling him that! Gardy is the manager!

I still wouldn't be surprised if someone like David Winfree or Brock Peterson makes a surprise cameo in September, as soon its going to be time to cut bait on them and we might as well add some extra bats to our bench for the stretch run and get a look at them up here. Although the real question is who would we remove to add them to our 40-man now that we know Tolbert and Buscher are coming up. Perhaps Dickey? The real surprising thing is that Tolleson and Hughes haven't been announced as coming up as they're already on the 40-man roster and could provide some valuable bench bats -- and Tolleson has versatility in the infield and outfield just as Tolbert does.

In another somewhat overlooked move, Yohan Pino was traded to the Indians to complete the Carl Pavano acquisition. This could actually come back to haunt us as he's been on fire lately, and despite falling out of the picture the last few years he once was a very promising prospect. Chances are he would have been taken in the Rule 5 draft this year anyway, as there are many prospects to add to our 40-man roster this offseason and not enough spots for all those deserving. I wish him luck, but it's going to be tough to like Pino if he comes back and makes us look foolish!

Ok, hopefully I have some good news tomorrow to write in regards to Harden (or Penny if Harden doesn't work out). But in the meantime, check some of the great blogs on the left for some more Twins news!

"Weather" or Not We're Built For Success

Yes, I know, bad puns will get me nowhere. But late at night after a long day at work and it's the best I could come up with.

Some of you might recall my previous posts looking ahead to what we'll see next year from other AL Central teams. My original intent had been to build up and then start looking at what we'll see on the Twins roster next year -- although the recent win streak somewhat derailed me from the whole "next year" kick, temporarily at least.

But I got to thinking -- we don't even really know what to expect from our stadium, much less our team. We've been so conditioned to people's stats inside a dome that sees balls get lost in the ceiling or take evil hops off a seam in the carpet in half of our games. Should I maybe only evaluate our team based off of our road splits?

Let me confess, one of my guilty pleasures is reading in-game threads and posts from White Sox blogs the day after we beat them. It's kind of fun. Do you know the one thing they keep harping on? That glorious day when we leave the Metrodome and give up our Domefield advantage... yeah, they can't wait until they face us next year.

Really? I thought we were the only ones who get to look forward to our new stadium! This is just a little disconcerting to me. What's it going to be like changing from that scrappy indoor team that always beats people with things like the "Butcher Boy"? Or air conditioning?**

**unsubstantiated

There are certain factors we need to take into consideration to really imagine next year: Ballpark dimensions, elevation, weather, and the composition of our team are probably the key ingredients to think about.

BALLPARK DIMENSIONS

Left Field: 339ft.

Center Field: 404ft.

Right Field: 328ft.

These dimensions are smaller than the Metrodome all-around. They've scraped 4ft. off of the left field wall, 4ft. off the center field wall, and just a foot off the already shortened porch in right. This will be a somewhat cozier ballpark than we're used to -- and we've already had to adjust to the lack of plexiglass in our lifetime!

Now, it's no Yankee Stadium, which takes the liberty of being a whopping 21ft. shallower in left, as well as 14ft. shallower in right (though they're both just as deep in center field -- I really hated geometry), but based on these dimensions we should still probably see a few more balls leave the park than at the Dome. We've seen how many of Mauer's homeruns are to left and center, and giving him an extra 4 feet there who knows what his power numbers are going to be like?

I went through the dimensions at Clem's Baseball of other parks, and while none really exactly match the new Target Field dimensions, the two that seem to come closest are Turner Field of the Atlanta Braves, and -- U.S. Cellular Field of the Devil's Children. (Ugh, it'll almost be like they're playing at home on the road!)

Now, both of those fields have a left field porch of 335ft., center field of 400ft, and right of 330ft. That's about four feet shorter than ours will be in in left and center and just a couple feet deeper than ours in right. That's about as close as it comes all around. Now, both U.S. Cellular and Turner Field are considered somewhat "pitcher friendly", and while that doesn't necessarily equate only to the dimensions, those play a large factor.

ELEVATION

Mountains symbolize elevation, in my mind. And, one of the most "hitter friendly" parks is widely considered to be Coors Field, home of the Rockies, which we all know is high up on a giant mountain peak where it's really hard to breathe because the air is so thin. (Citation needed.)

The principle behind why elevation has anything to do with baseball is that the ball tends to travel further in lower pressure, and it doesn't carry as well in particularly high-pressure air -- and we all know that air pressure is associated with elevation.

Two extremes: Philadelphia's Citizen's Bank Park is located 9 feet above sea level. Coors Field, on the other hand, is located 5,183 ft. above sea level. That's why the ball carries just a little bit further in Coors Field.

Let's look at Turner Field and U.S. Cellular though. Turner Field is on the relatively high end of the spectrum, sitting at 1,050 ft. above sea level. That's really behind only Colorado and Arizona for lowest air pressure. The Cell is about middle of the pack, at 596 ft. above sea level.

While I don't know Target Field's exact elevation, it's safe to assume it will be similar to the Metrodome's, which is 812 ft. above sea level and right behind Turner Field as the 4th highest elevation. We've had the luxury of defined air pressure which has sustained our inflated roof, so we haven't really noticed the effect of elevation on the flight of the ball in Minnesota yet.

My guess though, is that it won't make too much of a difference. Sure, the ball might carry slightly further in Minnesota than at Citizen's Bank Park, but the only place that elevation is really noticeable in its effect on a game is in Colorado, which still has around 4,000 ft. of a gap on its closest competition. Still, the ball could carry slightly further at Target Field than some other stadiums, it's just something to keep in mind.

WEATHER

That's what July baseball is going to look like next year. OK, so, that's an exaggeration. But that is a picture from opening day at The Met in 1965. And you may recall that The Met was in the same city as the outdoor stadium we're building now.

I would love nothing more than to fly out from New York to be there for the opening of Target Field, but, truth be told I'm worried as hell that it would be snowed out.

Here's the thing though: the average high and low in Minneapolis in April is 56/36, and in Chicago it's 58/38. In May that jumps to 68/47 in Minneapolis and 70/47 in Chicago. It averages through the 80's and 60's during June, July, and August, and then in September it drops back down to 70/50 in Minnesota and 74/54 in Chicago. October, if we get that far, is 58/38 in Minnesota, and 62/42 in Chicago. Not that different from April. (I don't want to even compare these numbers to the average temperatures in Atlanta. That's not even relevant.)

So it will certainly get chilly, and the White Sox are used to that, but the Twins will just have to start wearing long underwear all the time. Its playable. Cold air is dense, which means that in April, May, September, and October, the ball won't be carrying as far as it will in June, July, and August. The temperatures will swing dramatically between our coldest point and our warmest point, so I wouldn't be surprised if our power numbers don't start flashing until a couple months in.

What about the snow though? That picture of the Met on Opening Day in '65 is scary. In truth, the average snow fall in Minneapolis in April is 2.8 inches, and in Chicago, where they've been playing outdoor baseball for awhile, it's still 1.7 inches. It's miniscule in May, and it doesn't really register again until October when the average snowfall in Minnesota is .5 inches and in Chicago it's .4 inches. Further, the average date of the 1st inch of snow in Minnesota doesn't usually hit until November 18, and the average date of the last inch of snow is April 2nd (which isn't too bad).

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So, that just leaves us with what our team will look like next year playing in that environment. The real question is, with a smaller park does that mean we want ground ball pitchers? With almost two months of the weather hindering our homerun chances, should we seek high-contact hitters primarily to supplement the power threats of Morneau and Kubel?

I'll get to some of this stuff in a later post. For now, I need to rest off before I take off to Atlantic City for a weekend of Texas Hold 'Em. Wish me luck! If I win enough, I'll give it all to Joe Mauer and maybe we'll be able to keep him around a while longer?

The Magic Number?

No, I'm not talking about the infamous elimination number we start to see this time of year, I'm talking about the magic number the Twins have been taking advantage of:

At least that's what Joe Christensen reports in his blog that La Velle Neal believes:

La Velle called tonight’s comeback in a text message: “The sixth inning has been magic for the Twins.” Sure enough, after two more runs tonight, the Twins have now scored 19 sixth-inning runs in their past eight games.

For some reason I just kind of glanced over that before the game today, and as I watched the Twins try to claw their way back from the 5-3 deficit, I noticed the innings tick by until -- the 6th. And when I saw Brian Bass warming up? Well, let's just say that I used to cry and moan and throw (soft) things at the TV last year when Bassy would take the mound at the Dome. Tuesday night? I knew the comeback was about to start.

Oh, and what was the score they tied it up at?

Oh yeah, 6! Sports are crazy aren't they? But maybe there's something to this. Let's look at those games where we fought back in the 6th inning.

MONDAY, AUG. 17

The Twins lost to the rangers 8-5. The Twins scored 3 runs in the 6th inning. It started out great, with Mauer doubling. Casilla then flew out to left. Kubel walked and Cuddyer flew out to center. Then Tommy Hunter was replaced by Darren O'Day. O'Day came in and immediately walked Crede to fill up the bases. But he didn't stop there! He issued a free pass to Delmon to bring in the 1st run of the 6th inning.  LNP followed up with a 2RBI single that ushered O'Day out of the game, and Neftali Feliz came in to close the door by getting Span to ground out. Ok, so, this is how it happened: the Rangers starting pitcher got into the 6th inning and his 3rd time through the order we start to figure him out and his pitch count gets to him. An ineffective reliever is brought in and BOOM, we have a fighting chance until the Rangers stop fooling around with their big lead and bring in the lock down guys. Seems pretty normal.

TUESDAY, AUG. 18

The Twins beat the Rangers 9-6! This time we score 4 runs in the 6th. The rangers leave Scott Feldman in longer and so his meltdown is even bigger. After a lead-off single misplayed in the outfield to allow Orlando Cabrera to second, things get out of hand. Feldman retires Mauer, but Harris, Cuddyer, and Crede all single and the damage is underway. Gomez is retired, but Feldman walks LNP and then the Rangers realize it's time for the bullpen to solve things and Jason Jennings is brought in to erase the threat.

WEDNESDAY, AUG. 19

Twins win 5-4. And we score 4 in the 6th ... again. Oh look, their starter -- Kevin Millwood -- is still pitching! So the Twins figure him out and start to pound him. Cuddyer doubles, Crede dounbles, and just when Millwood thinks he's settled down by retiring Young and Gomez, he implodes. LNP does it again by getting an RBI single followed up by a Span double. Millwood is shown the door and O'Day is brought back. O-Cab knocks in another before O'Day gets out of the inning.

THURSDAY, AUG. 20

Let's forget about this one. Nothing good happened at all, and certainly not in the 6th (when the Rangers scored 5 runs and the Twins put up a goose-egg).

FRIDAY, AUG. 21

Twins @ Kansas City. The Twins won 5-4 after tying it up -- in the 6th!!! It started out simply enough with Delmon grounding out to Hochever, the starting pitcher. Then Gomez singled and used his awesome speed to take 2nd and then 3rd on a throwing error. Casilla doubles, then Span triples, before Hochevar finally gets out of the inning.

SATURDAY, AUG. 22

Twins get another 3 runs, obviously in the 6th, because that's where they seem to do all their scoring.  Starter Kyle Davies runs into struggles his 3rd time through the lineup. The Twins rough him up before he's replaced by Ron Mahay, who eventually gets them out of the inning, and the Twins go on to win 8-7.

SUNDAY, AUG. 23

The Twins didn't do anything in the 6th here, but they did win ridiculously, 10-3. In fact, they exploded for 8 runs in the 7th. Maybe that's because it was starter Brian Bannister's 3rd time through the order? Perhaps?

MONDAY, AUG. 24

Twins pull ahead to take the lead 2-1 against the Orioles in the 6th and end up winning by that score. You'll never believe it: it was start Chris Tillman's 3rd time through the order. I think I'm seeing another trend other than the number:

So, Tuesday the Orioles took their starter out after the 5th, but I think it's safe to say that any time Brian Bass takes the mound, people are going to start scoring in droves. It just happened to be the 6th inning.

I love these weird coincidences and superstitions in sports, but you know what's special about the 6th inning? That's usually when a starter begins to tire. If only 3 people get on base in the first 5 innings, the pitcher will be facing the top of the order for the 3rd time that night at the start of the 6th. And by then, the hitter has probably seen the pitcher's complete arsenal of pitches and probably has his timing down. Couple that with the higher pitch count and chances are you'll see runs, not only in the 6th, but probably the 5th and 7th. The only times you'll see huge numbers put up in early innings is probably when the starter utterly fails, and in later innings when a team has a horrible bullpen.

Don't we have a guy who struggles after his 1st and 2nd time through the order?

Just a thought. But I still like thinking about the whole 6th inning thing, it gives me hope if we're behind going later into the game. And, hey, if we can win Wednesday's game, guess how high our win streak would reach?

In other news ...

Armando Gabino got roughed up in his debut. But don't most people? Swarzak was a rarity in his first major league start. I don't think Gabino will be a frontline starter, but he could very well be effective in the majors if used properly (i.e. not in a desperation start). Check out Thrylos's blog for a more detailed look at Gabino, it's some great material.

And over at Plunking Gomez, Erin provides an awesome look into Joe Nathan,his usage and his effectiveness since we got him for that "other" catcher we used to have.

Quick Update: On the Impact of Having Streaks

For the purpose of this entry I'm going to define streaks as 3 or more wins, or 3 or more losses in a row on a team's schedule. You could argue that streaks should be more than 3 in a row, but I think there's something to that length, as 3 games is usually the length of a series with any given team and there's something to be said for winning all 3 games of a series.

Also, if you are going to define a streak as more than 3 games, the Twins have only had two win streaks, both of them at only 4 games, and that would just sound depressing. In May, the Twins won 4 in a row starting with a win in Chicago over the White Sox, and then followed up by a 3 game sweep of Milwaukee in the Dome.

Their other 4 game win streak was towards the end of July, when they took 1 game in LA followed up by another three game sweep at the Dome, this time of Chicago.

The Twins have only had four winning streaks of 3 games:

-3 game sweep of LA at the Dome in April

-2 against Tampa and 1 against KC at the Dome in April/May

-3 game sweep of Detroit at the Dome in May

-1 against Chicago at he Dome right before the All Star break followed immediately by 2 at Texas right out of the break.

On the other hand, the Twins have had 10 losing streaks this year:

-3 games in April (2 @ CHI, 1 vs TOR)

-3 in May (1 @ DET, 2 @ BAL)

-6 in May (4 @ NY, 2 @ CHI)

-3 at the end of May (1 vs BOS, 2 @ TB)

-3 in June (2 @ SEA, 1 @ OAK)

-3 in July (vs NY, sweep at the Dome)

-4 in July (1 @ OAK, 3 @LA)

-3 spanning July-August (all vs. LA at the Dome)

-3 in August (2 @ CLE, 1 @ DET)

-3 in August (2 vs CLE, 1 @ TEX)

Taking that into perspective, the Twins have had 10 total losing streaks, the longest of which was 6 games. The Twins have only countered with 6 winning streaks, the longest of which was only 4 games. That's not encouraging if this team can't put together momentum.

Last year, which wasn't a great year, but was certainly good from the fact that we were in it until the end, the Twins had 12 winning streaks as opposed to 9 losing streaks. And while the longest losing streak last year was also 6 games, it fed directly into the Twins longest winning streak of 10 whole games!

Simply put, we could use a 10 game winning streak this year, and our inability to put much in the way of a run of winning a large chunk of games in a row certainly accounts for why we can never gain ground in the standings.

That being said: a win this afternoon puts us at another 3 game winning streak ... it would be great if they could keep extending that for awhile?