Dreaming of Roy

Normally when you a see top tier trade target you can take the Twins out of the running, so when Roy Oswalt decided to declare his eligibility on the trade market (much to Houston's chagrin, I'm sure) it took me awhile to realize that we might actually have interest.

The Twins have set the standard high this year -- making sweeping moves in the offseason, locking up the best player in baseball to a record contract, and matching those moves with solid upper echelon play on the field.

The only thing lacking? A legitimate ace. Liriano could be that ace if he keeps that magic alive and forgets his last few starts, but it's not so often you see someone of Oswalt's caliber waiting to fall into your lap.

I could get into all sorts of stats that show that despite entering his mid-thirties he's still a better starter than anyone on our staff, but Gleeman is much better to read in that regard. Let me just sum up a few thoughts:

Negatives:

- Salary. We've committed a lot of money to the team we have and Oswalt's owed a good chunk of money this year and next. Sure, the front office has been willing to spend this offseason for a contender, but how much is too much? If we acquire Oswalt we could be stretching our budget at the seams, and that always leads to disappointment and payroll shedding.

- Who does he replace? Slowey's been a little ineffective this season but do you give up on him when we all know how good he can be? If not Slowey, I don't think that Pavano, Baker, Liriano, or Blackburn have done anything to justify demotion. Perhaps his acquisition would simply bump Slowey or Blackburn into something of a long-relief role in the 'pen? I suppose too many starters is a good thing but you still have to answer who doesn't take the mound every fifth day.

- What do we have to give up? I don't think Oswalt will command a king's ransom, but he won't be cheap either. Houston's top prospect is a catcher so I doubt Wilson Ramos becomes a trade chip. So what other top prospects do we build a trade around? I don't think anyone wants to put Kyle Gibson in a package, that would be shortsighted. Is Ben Revere blue-chip enough? Maybe something like Ben Revere, Alex Burnett and Jeff Manship? Or maybe Bromberg and Revere? Whoever we give up for Oswalt is going to hurt and it's going to be a risk. There's no way we send them Luke Hughes and Drew Butera...

Positives:

- He's durable and effective. Last year was a little bit of an off year for him, but other than that you could bank on 30 starts, 200 innings, and a respectable ERA, WHIP, and K/BB ratio. That's the kind of pitcher every team wants and someone I'm sure we would to.

- He'd be our ace. That would take a ton of pressure off Liriano, who everyone still looks to this year to carry this rotation. If Oswalt is here to take some of that pressure off, perhaps Liriano can find his groove with a little less spotlight shining on him.

- He legitimizes us. I think every national writer loves the Twins but remarks on how we don't have any established stud in our rotation yet. Oswalt being a Twin changes all of that, and we suddenly become a team that goes toe-to-toe with anyone in a short postseason series.

- He could also take Peavy out drinking whenever we face the White Sox and perhaps get him in trouble...

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All that being said, I think there's legitimate reason to pursue Oswalt if the price is right. I actually wouldn't be surprised this year if we winds up in a Twins uniform, but I don't think I'd be heartbroken if he doesn't land with us.

Thoughts?

We Can Still Trade Delmon!

I must say, I'm extremely happy that JJ Hardy is officially a Twin. It hasn't really set in yet that Carlos Gomez and all his exuberance and funny antics will no longer be a part of our team, but it's nice to look at that shortstop position on our roster and know that we have a quality major league player locking it down.

You, sir, are a shortstop. And a good one.

It seems that everyone's biggest criticism of this move is that our outfield defense has been set with Cuddyer occupying right field, Span in center, and Young in left. While that certainly looks to be the case, remember that the offseason has just begun.

I would still be perfectly happy packaging Delmon Young and shipping him off too. If the Twins are finally ready to concede how awful both the Santana and the Garza/Bartlett trades were, why not just scrap both of them and start anew? I still think we could pry something away for Delmon Young. He's not that far removed from his successful rookie year, and he's shown enough flashes of greatness down the stretch the past two years that someone should be willing to take a chance on him.

Most everyone will concede that Denard Span's defense isn't quite up to par in centerfield, but is exceptionally better in left or right. If I were Bill Smith, I'd start looking at free agent and trade candidate center fielders -- and there are several realistic options out there.

Of course we could always grab Mike Cameron and allow both he and JJ Hardy a mini Brewer's reunion party at Target Field. But even if the Twins didn't want to go after someone on the Cameron level of 7 or 8 million a year, they could easily take a flier on a couple other candidates:

Endy Chavez

Chavez has always been a great defensive outfielder, and adding him to our roster would easily upgrade our outfield defense. He should come relatively cheap too, at around 2 or 3 million for a year. Perhaps a 2-year deal to provide a stop-gap until someone like Ben Revere is ready to take over?

Coco Crisp

Crisp is coming off one of his worst seasons as a batter (.228/.336/.378), but his glove should still be sharp, and those numbers are a cry from his 8-year average of .277/.331/.407. The Royals weren't willing to pay him $8M next year, so they bought out his option. He is joining the wrong-side of 30 for a baseball player who relies on speed and defense, but he figures to have a few productive years ahead of him, and just like Chavez he could be a useful and inexpensive holdover until our better prospects are ready to come.

Of course those are just a couple of the potential free agent names that spring to mind. There are also a few trade candidates out there who shouldn't cost an arm and a leg to pry away from their teams. I bet we could pull a Matt Guerrier-for-Juan Pierre trade.

Pierre's a solid center fielder and a career .301 hitter who wouldn't be a bad fit in that second spot in our lineup for starters (although he does bat lefthanded and wouldn't break up the Span-Mauer-Morneau lefty combo). He comes at a steep salary, but the Twins could still handle it, especially for such a good player. The Dodgers definitely don't need him, with Kemp, Ethier, and Ramirez already locking down their outfield, so I'm sure they'd rather take a year of Guerrier than pay $10M for a bench player/pinch runner. The Twins could certainly use someone of his particular skill set.

I'd even take Felix Pie.

Mmmm, Pie.

Not the best hitter, but a decent glove, and the Orioles certainly make some weird trades, so, maybe we could trade them Rick Stelmascek?

Hey, don't be upset, you'd be helping us get a center-fielder.

If we got Pie from the Orioles and upgraded at either 2B or 3B, we'd still have a pretty solid lineup next year and keep our outfield defense intact.

Of course we have a stock of minor league center fielders coming through, so someone like Crisp, Chavez, or Pierre would perhaps make more sense than someone like Pie, as we'd only need them for one or two years until one of our better prospects is ready to take over.

Rene Tosoni profiles more as a corner outfielder although he's played center some in the minors. He's perhaps the most major-league ready, but right on his heels is Ben Revere, who is one of the best prospects in our system and has steadily moved up a level each year. He should be ready to debut in 2011 or 2012 at the latest if he keeps this pace.

Even further back are Joe Benson, Angel Morales and Aaron Hicks, who could be ready in 2012 or 2013, and many wouldn't be hesitant to label them All-Stars once they arrive.

Anyway, my point is simply that we shouldn't just think that we're stuck with Delmon in the lineup every day because we traded away Gomez. We shouldn't be hesitant to trade Young, as there are enough center fielders out there that we could afford to snag one of them for a year or two until some of our guys are ready to come up, and that way Span can still be an everyday starter in left, where he should be.

Just my thoughts.

Make sure to listen in as I rejoin Jack Steal this Wednesday for his podcast at 9PM CST/10PM EST!

Obviously you've all heard by now...

JJ Hardy will be suiting up for the Twins next year, and Carlos Gomez will be with our NL border-rival Brewers.

I'm definitely happy to see the proactivity on Bill Smith's part in addressing a position of need by dealing from a position of (relative) strengh -- the outfield. Especially because some of our highest prospects are outfielders.

I have some definite opinion on how this changes my approach to the offseason, and some of my thoughts could be a little off-the-wall, but I think they make perfect sense. I don't want to say it all now before I have time to do a more in-depth write-up, but suffice it to say that I still think we should be trading Delmon Young.

Expect a pretty article about this on Monday for everyone to read.

A Piece the Twins SHOULD Trade

By now, enough other bloggers have expounded on the fact that the Twins will probably only have around $20 million dollars or so at most to spend this offseason, and that will have to cover any restructuring of Joe Mauer's contract and plug all the leaks that have sprung in the infield and rotation. This could be a tall task for a Twins front office that hasn't displayed much in the way of creativity over its short tenure.

Consequently, one of the off-season options we could potentially expect to see again would be a significant trade. Twins Fix poses Jason Kubel as a potential tradable asset in a very well-thought out article. While I'd have to agree that if Kubel were able to net us a gold-mine, we should be willing to part with him, I'm not sure if he's the most likely candidate.

Kubel's position on our offense has been invaluable. And we have him at a relative bargain for at least the next two years if the Twins pick up their option (and I don't see how they wouldn't). After endless seasons of not having much power in the middle of our lineup, Kubel's presence has solidified a punch that I don't think we would be able to easily replace for a decent value on the free agent market or in our farm system. Without him, our potent lineup takes a big knock.

I'd like to pose that the Twins should deal from an area where they have overabundance. That area, believe it or not, is in our bullpen.

The Twins are going to have a massive group of pitchers lining up for a spot in their bullpen this year, and one area that practically every team in the majors is always looking to address (and always willing to overpay for) is in the bullpen.

Don't scoff. It's true that this past offseason, and up until our acquisition of Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay at the waiver deadline, the bullpen was a major achilles heel for our team as well. But with all the major players from this last year returning, in addition to Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek, and several people knocking on the door in Rochester, we might just have too few spots for all the available arms.

I am not advocating trading Joe Nathan.

Joe Nathan is one of the best closers in baseball, and no untimely misfortune in a high-pressure series against the Yankees will convince me otherwise. Give me one relief pitcher I want to see trot out of a bullpen in a close game and 5 out of 5 times I'll take Nathan.

I think we need to trade Matt Guerrier.

I love Guerrier. I think Guerrier is a quality bullpen arm and has been the second most reliable person out of our pen the past few years. I also think he performed well over his head this past year, and his value will never be higher.

The old adage is that it's better to trade a player too soon than too late. The ideal would to be trading that player right after they've peaked. Matt Guerrier is 31, his prime is just behind him, and he just posted a career year, with a 2.36 ERA and a 0.969 WHIP (well below his 6-year career numbers of a 3.41 ERA and 1.269 WHIP). He also was tied with Jeremy Affeldt for the most "Holds" (a meaningless stat but a stat nonetheless) with 33 on the season, 5 more than the next best of the set-up men.

I think Guerrier still has several solid years as a set-up man, but I would be willing to wager almost anything he doesn't post numbers like these again. (See Erin's article at Plunking Gomez for more on Guerrier's sustainability.)

Consider for a minute that next year we will have 6-7 spots open in the bullpen. You can assume that Joe Nathan, Jose Mijares and Jon Rauch will occupy 3 of those spots. Unless Jesse Crain is non-tendered, he is also a lock, and the way he pitched since coming back from his demotion to Rochester I have to believe that Crain will remain on our team. As frustrating as he's been, he's not been all that bad of a relief pitcher compared to many others.

I believe that that both Neshek and Bonser will be members of the bullpen as well. And between Liriano, Perkins, and Duensing, only one of them will likely make the rotation while the other two will either be traded or moved to the bullpen.

That's at least 7 good-to-serviceable arms in the pen, not counting Guerrier's. Top that with the fact that Gardenhire is strongly pushing to bring Mahay back under contract, and we have those vaunted prospects of Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama waiting for their shot down in Rochester. We have too many options!

Guerrier is entering his third year of arbitration after making nearly $1.5M in '09. In 2011 he'll hit free agency and the Twins will certainly not retain him. By all means the Twins should see how much somebody would be willing to overpay in a trade.

Perhaps the Angels or Dodgers, who both have suffered this past post-season from ineffective bullpens? Or perhaps Guerrier could be packaged with someone like Delmon Young or Glen Perkins to make a sweeter offer for an infielder like JJ Hardy or Yunel Escobar?

Truth be told, I don't know what kind of package we could get in return for one year of Guerrier, but I imagine that there are many teams looking for a solid reliever, and Guerrier is coming off his best year while the Twins suddenly find themselves with a surplus of bullpen arms for 2010. Some things just make sense.

You too can pretend to dream up brilliant moves and imagine you're the Twins GM, and the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook is not only a useful tool for your musings, but it is packed with enough information to get you through the lonely winter months of the offseason. And it's only $9.95! That's a real deal, especially considering all the free blogging that John Bonnes, Seth Stohs, Parker Hageman, and Nick Nelson have supplied us with on a daily basis.

Anyway, that's all for now. Be sure to check back later this week. I'll be rejoining Jack Steal on his podcast Wednesday night for another go-round, and on Friday I'll be continuing my Twins Bloggers: Get to Know 'Em segment focusing on Betsy of For the Love of the Game!

Quick Update: Bullpen NOOOOOO

Alright, I'm about to head off to Atlantic City, so I won't be around to hear the fallout from this, but, meet your two new bullpen members:

Ron Mahay, LHP 4.79 ERA, 1.79 WHIP ('09)

The Twins acquired Ron Mahay from the Royals for, well, basically nothing. Which is about what Mahay's worth. The one upside is that he's another lefty who at least knows how to throw a something towards a plate, but his chance of having a real impact is almost next to nothing. It's basically change for the sake of change. He's had a couple better years previously, but to bank on Mahay suddenly finding his own groove with only a month to go is a long shot. At least we didn't give up too much but he's not an answer.

Jon Rauch RHP, 4.14 ERA, 1.36 WHIP ('09)

So these aren't bad numbers per se, and he'll probably be an upgrade over Keppel, Humber, Manship, etc. But he's no 8th inning guy. His numbers are also a little high for his career this year, so maybe he's just had some bad luck. At least we probably won't cringe every time he takes the mound, I just wonder who the "player to be named later" is. It looks as if we'll be seeing Rauch next year as I seem to remember reading somewhere that he's signed for another year. Unfortunately I think by that time he'll kind of be dead weight in a stellar bullpen, but for now he shouldn't be too bad. Let's just hope they haven't given up on Penny.

OK, I'm off for the weekend for real this time. Make sure to check out my Target Field post earlier, and there's some good stuff about Jon Rauch on The Tenth Inning Stretch, and Seth Stohs also talks about both acquisitions, so I'd check out their sites, both are definitely worth a read.

Also, if seeing Betsy's pictures of Target Field the other day on her site made you want more, Nick Nelson's got a post up as well. Have a great weekend and "Go Twins!"